U.S. farmer sentiment saw a significant rise in February, with the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer increasing by 11 points to 152. This improvement was mainly driven by the Current Conditions Index, which surged 28 points to 137, reflecting a recovery from last year's lows. The Future Expectations Index saw a smaller increase of 3 points to 159.
The rise in sentiment is attributed to recovering crop prices, expectations of disaster payments from Congress, and strength in the livestock sector. Despite the improvement in current conditions, farmers remain more optimistic about the future, with the Future Expectations Index continuing to outpace the Current Conditions Index by 22 points.
The Farm Capital Investment Index rose 11 points to 59, reaching its highest level since May 2021. Farmers' improved outlook on current conditions drove this increase. Meanwhile, the Farm Financial Performance Index remained steady at 110, significantly higher than last fall’s low of 68.
The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index increased by 3 points to 118, reflecting improving sentiment compared to late summer and early fall 2024. However, optimism about farmland values remains lower than in 2021 and 2022.
Half of the farmers surveyed indicated they have no plans to grow their operations or plan to exit farming, a figure nearly unchanged from 2024. However, 19% of respondents expect their farms to grow by 10% to 15% annually, more than double last year’s figure.
Policy concerns remain a major focus for U.S. farmers. Sixty-two percent of respondents believe passing a new farm bill in 2025 is important, while 44% cited trade policy as the most critical issue for their farm over the next five years. Nearly half of the surveyed farmers believe a trade war that impacts U.S. agricultural exports is likely or very likely.
While the outlook for U.S. agriculture has improved, concerns about trade policy and the farm bill remain key factors shaping farmer sentiment in the months ahead.
SOURCE: CME GROUP