US

U.S. Jobless Claims Fall While Retail Sales Slow in June

The latest U.S. economic data painted a mixed picture of the economy, with the labor market remaining resilient while consumer spending showed signs of moderation.

Initial jobless claims fell to 208,000, beating expectations of 216,000 and improving from the previous week’s revised reading of 216,000. Continuing jobless claims also declined to 1.805 million from 1.821 million, coming in below the 1.820 million consensus estimate. The data suggests layoffs remain limited and the labor market continues to hold up despite elevated interest rates.

Consumer spending, however, showed signs of slowing. Headline retail sales rose 0.2% in June, matching economists’ expectations but decelerating sharply from May’s 1.0% increase. More concerning, core retail sales, which exclude automobiles and are closely watched as a gauge of underlying consumer demand, fell 0.2%, missing expectations for flat growth after rising 1.0% in the previous month.

The combination of resilient employment and softer consumer spending presents a balanced outlook for the U.S. economy. While businesses continue to retain workers, households appear to be becoming more cautious with discretionary spending after a strong performance in previous months.
U.S. Stocks Mixed as Softer Inflation Boosts Tech While Dow Lags

U.S. stocks traded mixed in early trading on Tuesday as investors reacted to a softer-than-expected June inflation report that strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

The Nasdaq gained about 0.8%, supported by technology and growth stocks that typically benefit from lower interest rates. The S&P 500 also moved modestly higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped slightly as investors rotated away from some defensive and value-oriented sectors.

Markets welcomed the June CPI report, which showed headline inflation fell 0.4% month over month, while annual inflation slowed to 3.5%. Core inflation also came in below expectations, with monthly core CPI unchanged and annual core inflation easing to 2.6%. The weaker inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin easing monetary policy sooner than previously anticipated.

Technology stocks led gains across the broader market as lower interest rate expectations improved the outlook for high-growth companies. Investors also continued to monitor corporate earnings season, with company-specific results driving notable moves across individual stocks.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments remained in focus. Recent tensions between the United States and Iran continue to be monitored by investors, particularly after the exchange of military strikes over the past week. Although markets have largely shifted their attention back toward economic data and earnings, any renewed escalation could quickly affect risk sentiment and commodity prices.

Investors will continue watching upcoming economic releases, Federal Reserve commentary, and second-quarter earnings reports for further direction as markets assess the outlook for interest rates and corporate profitability.
U.S. Inflation Cools More Than Expected in June, Strengthening Rate Cut Expectations

U.S. inflation slowed more than expected in June, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could have greater room to ease monetary policy in the coming months.

Headline consumer prices fell 0.4% month over month, a sharper decline than the expected 0.1% decrease, following a 0.5% increase in May. On an annual basis, CPI slowed to 3.5%, below the 3.8% consensus forecast and down from 4.2% in the previous month.

Underlying inflation also continued to moderate. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was unchanged on a monthly basis, compared with expectations for a 0.2% increase. Annual core inflation eased to 2.6% from 2.9%, coming in below the 2.8% market forecast.

The broad-based slowdown in both headline and core inflation suggests price pressures are continuing to ease across the U.S. economy. The softer data could strengthen market expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates sooner if inflation continues to move toward its 2% target.

Following the release, investors are likely to closely monitor upcoming retail sales, and Federal Reserve commentary for further clues on the timing and pace of potential policy easing.
U.S. ADP Employment Growth Slows to 19.8K in Latest Weekly Reading

U.S. private-sector employment growth slowed in the latest weekly ADP report, pointing to a modest cooling in labor market momentum.

ADP Employment Change came in at 19.8K, down from the previous reading of 21.0K.
U.S. Markets Trade Mixed as Investors Monitor U.S.-Iran Conflict and Await Earnings Season

U.S. stocks traded mixed on Monday as investors balanced escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against expectations for upcoming corporate earnings and a resilient U.S. economy.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.23%, while the Nasdaq declined 0.88% as technology stocks came under pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed, edging 0.20% higher with support from industrial and defensive shares.

Investor sentiment remained heavily influenced by the latest developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Military exchanges between the two countries intensified in recent days, with both sides carrying out missile and drone strikes and uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continuing to fuel concerns over global energy supplies. The renewed escalation has pushed oil prices higher and added to inflation concerns, although markets remain hopeful that the conflict will not significantly disrupt global crude exports.

On the macroeconomic front, investors continued to digest recent data showing a mixed but generally resilient U.S. economy. Last week’s weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls and softer services activity reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could still ease monetary policy later this year. At the same time, moderating inflation indicators have helped support the broader outlook for risk assets.

The market is also shifting its focus toward the upcoming second-quarter earnings season, with major U.S. banks set to report results next week. Investors will closely watch corporate guidance for signs that earnings growth can continue despite elevated interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and higher energy prices.

Although the major indexes remain near record levels, today’s mixed performance reflects a cautious market environment as investors weigh the economic impact of rising geopolitical tensions against a still-solid U.S. economic backdrop. The direction of the U.S.-Iran conflict, oil prices, and the start of earnings season are likely to remain the primary drivers of market sentiment in the coming days.
US Initial Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected, Signaling Labor Market Resilience

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly declined last week, pointing to continued strength in the U.S. labor market despite signs of a gradual economic slowdown.

Initial Jobless Claims Beat Expectations

Initial jobless claims fell to 215,000, below both the 218,000 market expectation and the previous week's 217,000 reading. The lower-than-expected figure indicates layoffs remain limited and employers continue to retain workers despite elevated interest rates.

Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims, which measure the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment benefits, rose to 1.814 million from 1.806 million in the previous week but remained below economists' expectations of 1.820 million.

Labor Market Remains Firm

The combination of lower initial claims and continuing claims that came in below forecasts suggests the U.S. labor market remains relatively resilient. While some workers are taking slightly longer to find new jobs, layoffs remain historically low, indicating businesses continue to hold onto employees.

The data reinforces the view that labor market conditions remain supportive of consumer spending and broader economic activity.

Market Focus Turns to the Federal Reserve

Investors will assess the latest labor market data alongside upcoming inflation reports and other economic indicators as they evaluate the Federal Reserve's next policy move.

A resilient labor market could reduce pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates quickly, as policymakers continue to monitor whether inflation is moving sustainably toward its target.
US Stocks Edge Higher as Tech Shares Lead Early Gains

U.S. stocks traded modestly higher in early trading on Thursday, with technology shares helping lift the broader market as investors reacted to a fresh wave of corporate earnings and analyst upgrades.

The S&P 500 gained 0.15%, while the Nasdaq advanced 0.20%, outperforming the major indexes thanks to strength in semiconductor and AI-related stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also moved higher, rising 0.10%.

Semiconductor Stocks Extend AI Rally

Chip equipment makers led the market higher after several positive analyst actions.

Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX) surged in premarket trading after Mizuho raised its price target to $400 and reiterated its *Outperform* rating. Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) also received a higher price target from Mizuho, while Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) benefited from Evercore's reaffirmed *Outperform* rating and new $500 price target, adding to optimism surrounding continued AI infrastructure investment.

The gains reflect ongoing confidence that semiconductor capital spending will remain strong as demand for AI processors, advanced memory, and next-generation data center infrastructure continues to expand.

Earnings Drive Individual Stock Moves

Corporate earnings remained a key driver of early trading.

Simply Good Foods (NASDAQ: SMPL) soared after investors welcomed results that exceeded management's expectations despite lower year-over-year earnings, suggesting confidence in the company's turnaround strategy.

On the downside, PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP) declined after investors focused on softer underlying earnings growth and continued margin pressure despite higher revenue and reaffirmed full-year guidance. Northern Technologies International (NASDAQ: NTIC) also traded sharply lower after reporting a quarterly loss caused by margin compression from elevated raw material costs.

Investors Await More Earnings and Economic Data

Market participants remain focused on the upcoming earnings season as investors assess whether corporate profits can continue to support record equity valuations. At the same time, traders are monitoring economic data and Federal Reserve expectations for further clues on the outlook for interest rates.

The combination of resilient AI-related technology stocks and mixed earnings reactions across other sectors is helping keep the broader market in positive territory during Thursday's opening session.
Nasdaq Leads Wall Street Higher as Technology Stocks Rally Despite Softer U.S. Services Data

U.S. stocks traded mixed on Monday as investors weighed softer-than-expected economic data against continued strength in technology shares. The Nasdaq outperformed, climbing 1.1%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged the broader market, slipping marginally into negative territory.

Technology stocks led the advance, helping lift both the Nasdaq and the broader market as investors continued rotating into growth-oriented sectors. The rally came despite economic data pointing to a modest cooling in the U.S. services sector.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI edged down to 54.0 in June from 54.5 in May, missing economists' expectations of 54.2. Meanwhile, the S&P Global Services PMI also came in slightly below forecasts at 51.2. Although both readings remained above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, they suggested the pace of growth in the services sector moderated during the month.

At the same time, inflation pressures showed further signs of easing. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Index declined sharply to 67.7 from 71.3, indicating that input cost growth slowed, even though price pressures remain elevated.

The combination of softer business activity and moderating inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may have greater flexibility on interest rate policy later this year. Investors largely looked past the slightly weaker economic readings, focusing instead on the prospect of a more accommodative monetary environment, which provided support for high-growth technology stocks.

As trading continues, market participants remain focused on upcoming inflation reports and corporate earnings for further direction on the economy and the outlook for U.S. equities.
U.S. ISM Services PMI Slows in June While Price Pressures Ease

The U.S. services sector continued to expand in June, although growth came in slightly below expectations as the latest ISM data pointed to moderating business activity and easing inflationary pressures.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 54.0 in June from 54.5 in May, missing the consensus estimate of 54.2. Despite the modest slowdown, the index remained comfortably above the 50-point threshold, signaling continued expansion in the services sector, which accounts for the majority of U.S. economic activity.

Meanwhile, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Index fell sharply to 67.7 from 71.3, while coming in just above expectations of 67.5.
U.S. S&P Global Services PMI Misses Expectations in June, Signals Slight Cooling in Services Activity

The U.S. S&P Global Services PMI came in at 51.2 for June, below the consensus forecast of 51.3 and down slightly from the previous reading of 51.3, indicating a modest slowdown in growth across the U.S. services sector.
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Gold

Gold Holds Above $4,000 as Cooling Inflation and Geopolitical Risks Offset Strong Labor Data

Gold prices edged higher on Friday, holding above the psychologically important $4,000-per-ounce level as easing inflation and lingering geopolitical tensions continued to support safe-haven demand despite signs of resilience in the U.S. labor market.

The precious metal gained around 0.2% to trade near $4,001 after this week’s softer-than-expected U.S. inflation report strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates later this year. June CPI and core CPI both came in below market expectations, reinforcing the view that inflationary pressures are gradually easing.

At the same time, Thursday’s U.S. jobless claims data pointed to a still-solid labor market. Initial claims fell to 208,000, below expectations of 216,000, while continuing claims also declined, suggesting layoffs remain limited. However, weaker core retail sales indicated consumer spending may be losing some momentum, helping preserve expectations for policy easing.

Geopolitical developments also remained a key driver for gold. Investors continued to monitor tensions involving the United States and Iran following recent military exchanges, while broader conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe maintained demand for defensive assets.

Looking ahead, traders will focus on upcoming Federal Reserve commentary and additional economic data for clues on the timing of the first rate cut. Any renewed geopolitical escalation could provide additional support for gold prices in the near term.

Gold and silver rally as CPI cools Fed-rate pressure - Kitco AM Report | Kitco News

Gold and silver rally as CPI cools Fed-rate pressure - Kitco AM Report
...

(kitco.com)

Gold is becoming the reserve asset of the new multipolar world – Sprott’s Paul Wong | Kitco News

Gold is becoming the reserve asset of the new multipolar world – Sprott’s Paul Wong ...

(kitco.com)
Gold Holds Above $4,000 as Investors Balance Geopolitical Risks and Economic Data

Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, trading around $4,020 per ounce as investors continued to balance geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East against a steady stream of global economic data and expectations for central bank policy.

The precious metal has remained well supported in recent weeks following renewed military tensions between the United States and Iran. Although immediate fears of a broader regional conflict have eased, the recent exchange of attacks has reinforced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, helping prices remain above the psychologically important $4,000 level.

At the same time, investors are digesting a series of mixed economic releases from major economies. China's trade data exceeded expectations, with both exports and imports posting strong growth, while recent inflation figures from India pointed to persistent price pressures. In Japan, industrial production missed forecasts despite stronger household spending, reflecting an uneven global economic backdrop.

Meanwhile, markets continue to assess the outlook for monetary policy. Softer inflation trends in some regions have strengthened expectations for future interest rate cuts, while resilient economic activity in others suggests central banks may remain cautious. This combination has helped limit downside pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold.

Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor upcoming U.S. inflation data, Federal Reserve commentary, and any further developments surrounding U.S.-Iran relations. While easing geopolitical tensions could reduce safe-haven demand, any renewed escalation or signs of slowing global growth could provide fresh support for gold prices.

Gold Sinks to $4000 on Trump's Hormuz Tariff Ahead of US Inflation, Fed Testimony, Earnings | Gold News

Gold sank near $4000 on Monday as silver also fell on the worsening US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars ahead of US inflation and Fed testimony

(bullionvault.com)
Gold Falls as U.S.-Iran Conflict Fuels Inflation Fears and Higher-For-Longer Fed Expectations

Gold prices fell nearly 1% on Monday, with August COMEX futures dropping below $4,080 per ounce, as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran pushed oil prices higher and shifted investor focus from safe-haven demand to the inflationary consequences of the conflict.

Middle East Conflict Lifts Oil Prices, Pressures Gold

While geopolitical uncertainty typically supports gold, the latest escalation in the Middle East has had the opposite effect.

Renewed military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran, along with concerns over potential disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, have driven crude oil prices sharply higher. The prospect of higher energy costs has increased fears that inflation could remain elevated for longer, reducing expectations for easier monetary policy.

Higher Treasury Yields and Stronger Dollar Weigh on Bullion

The inflation outlook has pushed U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher, creating headwinds for gold.

As investors price in a greater likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold has increased. Rising bond yields and a firmer dollar have therefore outweighed gold's traditional appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Markets Turn Attention to U.S. Inflation Data

Investors are now looking ahead to key U.S. economic releases, including inflation data and additional labor market indicators, for clues on the Federal Reserve's next policy move.

A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could reinforce expectations that policymakers will maintain a restrictive stance, potentially extending pressure on gold prices. Conversely, signs that inflation is easing despite higher energy costs could help stabilize the precious metal.

For now, the market remains focused on the inflationary implications of the U.S.-Iran conflict rather than its safe-haven characteristics, leaving gold under pressure despite heightened geopolitical risks.
Gold Rises Above $4,120 as Weaker Dollar and Safe-Haven Demand Offset Fed Rate Concerns

Gold prices climbed more than 1% today, with August COMEX futures rising to around $4,124 per ounce after recovering from a sharp selloff earlier this week. The rebound pushed the precious metal back above the key $4,100 level, although prices remain below recent highs reached earlier this month.

The recovery was driven primarily by a softer U.S. dollar, which made gold more attractive for overseas buyers, while renewed geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East supported demand for safe-haven assets. Fresh tensions involving the United States and Iran continued to keep investors cautious despite gold's volatile trading over recent sessions.

However, gold's upside remains constrained by expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep monetary policy restrictive for longer. Rising oil prices have renewed inflation concerns, prompting investors to price in a higher probability of additional interest rate increases later this year.

The market's recent price action highlights the conflicting forces currently driving gold. On one hand, geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand continue to provide support. On the other, higher Treasury yields and persistent inflation expectations are preventing a sustained breakout.

Investors are now closely watching upcoming U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve commentary for further clues on the interest-rate outlook. Any signs of easing inflation or a softer Fed stance could provide additional support for gold, while stronger economic data and rising yields may once again pressure the precious metal.
Gold Holds Near Record High as Rate Cut Expectations Continue to Support Prices

Gold traded higher on Monday, with August futures rising 0.9% to around *$4,162 per ounce*, as investors continued to favor the precious metal amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates later this year.

The rally follows last week's weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market data, which showed the economy added just *57,000 nonfarm payrolls* in June, well below market expectations. The disappointing employment figures strengthened expectations for monetary policy easing, providing continued support for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Investor sentiment has also been supported by recent comments from Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, who signaled that policymakers should remain flexible as economic conditions evolve. Combined with expectations of lower borrowing costs, the remarks have reinforced demand for safe-haven assets.

Beyond monetary policy, ongoing geopolitical tensions and steady central bank purchases continue to provide a favorable backdrop for gold prices, helping the metal remain close to record highs.

Investors will now turn their attention to upcoming U.S. inflation data and additional comments from Federal Reserve officials for further clues on the timing and pace of potential interest rate cuts, which are likely to remain a key driver of gold prices in the coming weeks.
Gold Climbs While Brent Holds Steady as Markets Weigh Weak U.S. Jobs Data and Fed Outlook

Gold prices advanced sharply while Brent crude oil ended nearly unchanged on Friday, as investors assessed weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market data and its implications for Federal Reserve policy.

August gold futures settled at $4,181.10 per ounce, gaining 1.34%, after the June U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report showed the economy added just 57,000 jobs, well below economists’ expectations of 114,000. Although weekly initial jobless claims came in at 215,000, slightly below forecasts, the sharp slowdown in hiring reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates later this year.

Lower interest rates tend to support gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. The precious metal also continued to benefit from recent remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh at the ECB Forum in Portugal, where he emphasized that policymakers should remain flexible as economic conditions evolve. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and continued central bank demand also provided additional support for bullion.

Meanwhile, Brent crude finished the session near $71.76 per barrel, little changed despite early volatility. Oil prices initially came under pressure following the disappointing U.S. jobs report, as weaker employment growth raised concerns about future fuel demand in the world’s largest economy.

However, losses were limited by continued attention to global supply conditions, including OPEC+ production policy and broader geopolitical risks. Investors also weighed the possibility that weaker economic data could accelerate Fed rate cuts, which could eventually support economic growth and energy demand.

With U.S. financial markets closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday, trading volumes remained relatively light. However, gold outperformed on growing expectations of monetary policy easing, while Brent crude held broadly steady as demand concerns were balanced by ongoing supply-side support.
Gold Rises as Weak U.S. Data Offsets Fed Remarks

Gold prices climbed on Wednesday as weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could eventually lower interest rates, outweighing comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

The precious metal found support after the ADP employment report showed U.S. private payrolls increased by just 98,000 in June, below economists' expectations of 118,000. Additional economic data also pointed to easing inflation pressures, with the ISM Manufacturing Prices Index falling more than expected, reinforcing expectations that the U.S. economy is gradually cooling.

At the same time, remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal added another layer to the market narrative. Warsh declined to provide any guidance on the Fed's July meeting and emphasized that inflation remains "too high," reaffirming the central bank's commitment to restoring price stability and maintaining its 2% inflation objective.

Although Warsh's comments sound relatively hawkish, investors focused more heavily on the softer economic data, which increased expectations that slowing growth could eventually pave the way for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Lower interest rates typically support gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Warsh also stressed that future policy decisions would remain data dependent and highlighted the Fed's plans to improve its use of real-time economic data and artificial intelligence in policymaking, while avoiding any commitment on the timing of future rate moves.

With attention now shifting to Thursday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, investors are looking for further evidence that the labor market is cooling. Another weaker-than-expected employment report could reinforce expectations for future Fed easing and provide additional support for gold prices.
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Germany

Eurozone Inflation Eases Further in June, Supporting ECB Policy Outlook

Eurozone inflation continued to moderate in June, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will have greater flexibility to continue easing monetary policy if disinflation remains on track.

Headline consumer inflation came in at 2.8% year over year, matching market expectations and slowing from 3.2% in May. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also met forecasts at 2.4%, down from 2.6% in the previous month.
Germany’s Trade Surplus Widens Sharply in May, Beating Expectations

Germany posted a much stronger-than-expected trade surplus in May, underscoring the resilience of Europe’s largest export-driven economy despite ongoing global economic uncertainty.

Germany’s trade balance recorded a surplus of €19.1 billion in May, significantly exceeding economists’ expectations of €14.9 billion. The result also improved markedly from April’s €14.7 billion surplus, reflecting stronger external demand and a favorable trade environment.
German Factory Orders Rebound More Than Expected in May

Germany’s industrial sector showed signs of improvement in May as factory orders rebounded more strongly than expected, pointing to a gradual stabilization in Europe’s largest economy.

German factory orders increased 1.9% month-over-month in May, beating economists’ expectations of a 1.1% rise and reversing April’s revised 3.2% decline.
Eurozone Services PMI Sends Mixed Signals as Germany Improves, France Remains Weak

The latest HCOB Services PMI data painted a mixed picture for the eurozone economy in June, with Germany showing signs of improvement, Italy returning to modest expansion, while France remained in contraction.

Germany’s HCOB Services PMI rose to 48.6 in June from 48.1 in May, comfortably beating economists’ expectations of 46.8. Although the index remained below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, the stronger-than-expected reading suggests the downturn in Germany’s services sector is easing.

Italy also showed encouraging signs, with its Services PMI rising to 50.2 from 49.4. While the figure came in just below the consensus estimate of 50.3, it moved back above the 50 mark, indicating a return to modest expansion after contracting in the previous month.

France, however, continued to lag behind its eurozone peers. The country’s Services PMI improved to 46.8 from 44.3 but missed expectations of 47.4, remaining firmly in contraction territory.
Eurozone Inflation Cools More Than Expected in June

Inflation across the eurozone eased more than expected in June, reinforcing signs that price pressures continue to moderate and strengthening expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy outlook.

The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 2.8%, below economists' expectations of 3.0% and down from 3.2% in May.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also declined to 2.4% from 2.6% in the previous month, coming in below the consensus forecast of 2.5%.
Germany's Manufacturing Sector Returns to Growth in June

Germany's manufacturing sector returned to expansion in June, with the HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.3, slightly above market expectations of 50.0 and improving from 50.1 in May.
German Inflation Slows More Than Expected in June

Germany's inflation cooled more than expected in June, reinforcing signs that price pressures continue to ease in Europe's largest economy.

Consumer prices fell 0.3% month over month, compared with expectations for unchanged prices. The decline followed a 0.2% decrease in May, marking a sharper-than-expected slowdown in monthly inflation.

On an annual basis, Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3%, below economists' expectations of 2.6% and down from 2.6% in the previous month.
Germany's June Ifo survey showed improving confidence among businesses, driven by a stronger assessment of current conditions, although expectations for the future remained cautious.

The Ifo Current Assessment Index rose to 87.0 from 86.1 in May, beating forecasts of 86.0. The improvement suggests German companies are seeing better business conditions in the present, consistent with recent signs that the country's manufacturing sector has stabilized after a prolonged downturn.

Meanwhile, the Ifo Business Expectations Index increased slightly to 84.1 from 83.9 but missed expectations of 85.0. While businesses became marginally more optimistic about the months ahead, confidence remains relatively subdued, reflecting ongoing concerns about economic growth, global trade conditions, and domestic demand.
Germany's June PMI data showed a slight deterioration in business activity, with weakness in the services sector offsetting stability in manufacturing.

The HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.0 from 50.1 in May, missing expectations of 50.3. While the reading remains at the threshold between expansion and contraction, it suggests industrial activity has largely stabilized after a prolonged downturn but is struggling to gain meaningful momentum.

More concerning was the services sector, where the HCOB Germany Services PMI fell to 46.8 from 48.1 in May, well below the 49.0 consensus forecast. The reading signals an accelerating contraction in Germany's largest economic sector and points to softer domestic demand.
German Producer Prices Rise Less Than Expected in May

German producer prices increased 0.3% month-over-month in May, falling short of economists' expectations for a 0.7% increase and slowing significantly from April's 1.2% gain.
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COINBASE:ADAUSD

XRP, SOL, ADA's Coinbase Premium Surges to One-Month High After Trump's Crypto Reserve News

Tokens traded at a notable premium on Coinbase relative to Binance after Trump announced plans for establishing strategic crypto reserve.

(finance.yahoo.com)
what is next for cryptos ?
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Brent Crude

Brent Crude Climbs Toward $80 as Supply Risks Outweigh Economic Concerns

Brent crude oil advanced nearly 1% on Friday, extending its recent gains as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to support concerns over potential supply disruptions.

Oil prices remained elevated after recent military exchanges between the United States and Iran heightened uncertainty across the region. Investors continue to price in a geopolitical risk premium given the strategic importance of the Middle East to global energy markets.

The market also assessed this week’s U.S. economic data. Softer inflation strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a development that could support future fuel demand by improving economic activity. However, mixed retail sales data suggested consumer spending may be moderating, limiting some of the optimism surrounding the demand outlook.

Meanwhile, traders continued monitoring global supply conditions, including OPEC+ production policy and U.S. inventory trends, while keeping a close watch on developments involving Russia and broader geopolitical risks.

With Brent approaching the $80-per-barrel level, price action is likely to remain highly sensitive to both macroeconomic developments and geopolitical headlines. Investors will continue watching Middle East tensions, central bank policy expectations, and global demand indicators for the next direction in the oil market.
Brent Crude Jumps Above $86 as Middle East Tensions Rekindle Supply Concerns

Brent crude oil climbed nearly 4% on Tuesday, trading above $86 per barrel as renewed geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran overshadowed broader macroeconomic developments and reignited concerns over global oil supplies.

Oil prices have rallied sharply over the past several sessions following a fresh escalation in the Middle East. Recent exchanges between the U.S. and Iran have increased fears that the conflict could disrupt energy infrastructure or shipping routes in the region, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global crude exports.

The rally has also been supported by a generally constructive global economic backdrop. China's latest trade data surprised to the upside, with exports and imports both growing much faster than expected, pointing to resilient industrial activity and potentially stronger oil demand from the world's largest crude importer. Meanwhile, Germany reported a larger-than-expected trade surplus, reinforcing signs of stability in Europe's largest economy.

Despite these supportive demand signals, investors continue to monitor the outlook for global monetary policy. Mixed economic data from the United States and other major economies have kept expectations for future interest rate moves uncertain, leaving demand forecasts balanced against geopolitical risks.

Looking ahead, Brent's direction will likely remain driven by developments in the Middle East. Any further escalation between the U.S. and Iran could push prices even higher by increasing concerns over supply disruptions, while signs of de-escalation could quickly remove part of the geopolitical premium that has fueled the recent rally.

Oil prices rise as Trump vows to reinstate Hormuz strait blockade, US and Iran exchange strikes

Oil prices rose further on Monday as the US and Iran traded a new round of strikes.

(finance.yahoo.com)
Brent Crude Oil Rises 2.6% as U.S.-Iran Conflict Raises Supply Disruption Fears

Brent crude oil climbed more than 2.5% on Monday, extending its recent rally as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran renewed concerns over global oil supplies. Brent futures traded near $78 per barrel after investors priced in the growing risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Middle East Tensions Drive Oil Higher

The latest gains came after the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran intensified, raising fears that crude exports from the region could be disrupted.

A key concern for energy markets is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil shipping routes. After Iran declared the Strait is closed, geopolitical risk premiums have returned to the oil market as traders prepare for the possibility of further escalation.

Supply Risks Outweigh Demand Concerns

The renewed geopolitical tensions have largely overshadowed concerns about slowing global economic growth and weaker fuel demand.

While investors continue to monitor the outlook for China and other major economies, the immediate focus has shifted toward potential supply shocks. Higher oil prices also reflect increased uncertainty surrounding shipping, insurance costs, and production risks across the Middle East.

The rebound follows several weeks of relatively stable prices, with traders now reassessing the balance between adequate global inventories and rising geopolitical risks.

What Investors Are Watching Next

Oil markets will remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East over the coming days. Any escalation that threatens production facilities or shipping routes could push prices higher, while signs of diplomatic progress could quickly remove part of the current geopolitical risk premium.

Beyond geopolitics, investors will also monitor upcoming U.S. inflation data, Federal Reserve expectations, and global demand indicators for additional direction.

For now, concerns over potential supply disruptions stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict remain the dominant driver of Brent crude, helping lift prices despite ongoing uncertainty about the global economic outlook.
Brent Crude Slips as U.S.-Iran Tensions Keep Risk Premium Elevated While Macro Data Clouds Demand Outlook

Brent crude oil edged lower today, slipping nearly 1% to around $77.25 per barrel, as traders assessed renewed U.S.-Iran tensions alongside mixed global macroeconomic data.

Oil prices remain supported by geopolitical risk after attacks between the United States and Iran in recent days raised concerns over potential disruption risks in the Middle East. Although no major supply interruption has been confirmed, any escalation involving Iran increases market sensitivity because of the region's importance to global oil flows and the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, macroeconomic data created a more cautious demand backdrop. China’s consumer inflation slowed to 1.0% in June, slightly below expectations, while producer prices rose 4.1%, pointing to uneven economic momentum in the world’s largest crude importer.

The market is therefore balancing two opposing forces: geopolitical risk that supports prices and macro uncertainty that limits stronger upside. Traders are also watching U.S. inventory data, OPEC+ production decisions, and further developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict for the next direction.

For now, Brent remains elevated compared with last week, but the latest decline shows that demand concerns and uncertainty over the scale of any supply disruption continue to keep the market volatile.
Brent Crude Holds Near $72 as Traders Balance Supply Risks and Demand Outlook

Brent crude oil traded little changed on Monday, holding near *$71.80 per barrel* as investors balanced expectations of ample global supply against improving demand prospects following last week's weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data.

Oil prices remain under pressure after OPEC+ signaled another production increase beginning in August, raising concerns that additional supply could weigh on the market. At the same time, uncertainty over global economic growth continues to limit bullish sentiment.

However, downside pressure has been tempered by expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates later this year after the U.S. economy added just *57,000 nonfarm payrolls* in June, well below market expectations. Lower borrowing costs could help support economic activity and energy demand in the coming months.

Investors are also monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East and global trade negotiations, both of which could influence the supply-demand outlook for crude markets.

With competing forces offsetting each other, Brent crude remained broadly stable around the *$72 per barrel* level as traders awaited fresh catalysts, including upcoming U.S. inflation data and further signals on global oil supply and demand.
Gold Climbs While Brent Holds Steady as Markets Weigh Weak U.S. Jobs Data and Fed Outlook

Gold prices advanced sharply while Brent crude oil ended nearly unchanged on Friday, as investors assessed weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market data and its implications for Federal Reserve policy.

August gold futures settled at $4,181.10 per ounce, gaining 1.34%, after the June U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report showed the economy added just 57,000 jobs, well below economists’ expectations of 114,000. Although weekly initial jobless claims came in at 215,000, slightly below forecasts, the sharp slowdown in hiring reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates later this year.

Lower interest rates tend to support gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. The precious metal also continued to benefit from recent remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh at the ECB Forum in Portugal, where he emphasized that policymakers should remain flexible as economic conditions evolve. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and continued central bank demand also provided additional support for bullion.

Meanwhile, Brent crude finished the session near $71.76 per barrel, little changed despite early volatility. Oil prices initially came under pressure following the disappointing U.S. jobs report, as weaker employment growth raised concerns about future fuel demand in the world’s largest economy.

However, losses were limited by continued attention to global supply conditions, including OPEC+ production policy and broader geopolitical risks. Investors also weighed the possibility that weaker economic data could accelerate Fed rate cuts, which could eventually support economic growth and energy demand.

With U.S. financial markets closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday, trading volumes remained relatively light. However, gold outperformed on growing expectations of monetary policy easing, while Brent crude held broadly steady as demand concerns were balanced by ongoing supply-side support.
Brent Crude Falls as Geopolitical Risk Premium Continues to Fade

Brent crude oil traded lower on Wednesday, extending its recent decline as easing geopolitical tensions reduced the risk premium that had supported prices earlier.

At the time of writing, Brent crude was down 1.05% at $70.82 per barrel. Over the past five days, prices have fallen nearly 6%, reflecting a sharp shift in sentiment after fears of a wider Middle East conflict eased.

The decline suggests traders are moving away from supply-disruption concerns and refocusing on fundamentals, including global demand, OPEC+ production policy, and signs of slower economic activity.

Recent U.S. data showed private job growth and manufacturing momentum weakening, raising concerns that softer economic growth could weigh on energy demand. At the same time, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has reduced immediate fears of disruption in key oil-producing regions.

For now, Brent remains under pressure as the market unwinds geopolitical risk pricing. Unless new supply risks emerge, traders are likely to keep watching demand indicators and upcoming inventory data for the next clear direction.
Gold and Brent Crude Extend Losses as Easing Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Commodities

Gold and Brent crude oil traded lower on Wednesday as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reduced demand for traditional safe-haven and risk-premium assets, while investors shifted their focus back to broader macroeconomic fundamentals.

At the time of writing, Brent crude futures were down 1.4% at $71.90 per barrel, while gold futures fell 1.3% to $3,986.40 per ounce.

# Brent Crude Slides as Geopolitical Risk Premium Fades

Brent crude extended its recent decline after the ceasefire between the United States and Iran eased concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Middle East.

With the immediate threat of a broader regional conflict diminishing, traders have continued to remove the geopolitical risk premium that had supported oil prices during recent tensions. Investors are now turning their attention back to global supply and demand fundamentals, including OPEC+ production policy, economic growth, and fuel demand.

# Gold Pulls Back as Investors Take Profits

Gold also came under pressure as investors reduced safe-haven positions amid improving market sentiment.

The easing of geopolitical risks encouraged investors to rotate into equities, particularly technology stocks, while the precious metal faced additional selling following its exceptional rally over the past year. After climbing to record highs, gold appears to be experiencing a period of profit-taking as some investors lock in gains.

Despite the recent pullback, the longer-term outlook for gold remains supported by continued central bank buying, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations that major central banks could gradually ease monetary policy over time.

# Risk Appetite Improves Across Financial Markets

The decline in gold and oil coincided with another positive session for global equity markets. U.S. stocks advanced, led by technology shares, as investors welcomed easing geopolitical tensions and continued to favor risk assets.

The improving market sentiment reduced demand for defensive investments, contributing to weakness across both commodities.

# What Investors Are Watching

Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor:

* Developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
* OPEC+ production policy and global oil demand.
* Upcoming U.S. labor market and inflation data.
* Central bank policy expectations and broader risk sentiment.

With geopolitical risks easing and investors rotating back into equities, both gold and Brent crude could remain under pressure in the near term, although any renewed geopolitical tensions or deterioration in the economic outlook could quickly restore demand for defensive assets.
Brent crude extended its decline on Friday, falling more than 3% to around $73 per barrel as easing geopolitical tensions and improving oil flows from the Middle East continued to pressure prices.

The recent risk premium that lifted crude prices during the Iran conflict has largely faded after signs of a sustained ceasefire and the gradual normalization of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. With supply disruption fears easing, traders have shifted their focus back to underlying market fundamentals.

Oil also remains under pressure from concerns about global demand. Slowing economic activity in several major economies and expectations for ample supply have weighed on sentiment, reinforcing the recent pullback in crude prices. Analysts have also begun lowering their near-term oil price forecasts as geopolitical risks recede and supply conditions improve. (The Wall Street Journal)

Despite today's decline, investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, as any renewed disruption to regional oil exports or shipping routes could quickly restore volatility to the energy market.
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France

Eurozone Inflation Eases Further in June, Supporting ECB Policy Outlook

Eurozone inflation continued to moderate in June, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will have greater flexibility to continue easing monetary policy if disinflation remains on track.

Headline consumer inflation came in at 2.8% year over year, matching market expectations and slowing from 3.2% in May. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also met forecasts at 2.4%, down from 2.6% in the previous month.
Eurozone Services PMI Sends Mixed Signals as Germany Improves, France Remains Weak

The latest HCOB Services PMI data painted a mixed picture for the eurozone economy in June, with Germany showing signs of improvement, Italy returning to modest expansion, while France remained in contraction.

Germany’s HCOB Services PMI rose to 48.6 in June from 48.1 in May, comfortably beating economists’ expectations of 46.8. Although the index remained below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, the stronger-than-expected reading suggests the downturn in Germany’s services sector is easing.

Italy also showed encouraging signs, with its Services PMI rising to 50.2 from 49.4. While the figure came in just below the consensus estimate of 50.3, it moved back above the 50 mark, indicating a return to modest expansion after contracting in the previous month.

France, however, continued to lag behind its eurozone peers. The country’s Services PMI improved to 46.8 from 44.3 but missed expectations of 47.4, remaining firmly in contraction territory.
Eurozone Inflation Cools More Than Expected in June

Inflation across the eurozone eased more than expected in June, reinforcing signs that price pressures continue to moderate and strengthening expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy outlook.

The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 2.8%, below economists' expectations of 3.0% and down from 3.2% in May.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also declined to 2.4% from 2.6% in the previous month, coming in below the consensus forecast of 2.5%.
France's June PMI data painted a mixed picture for the economy, with manufacturing returning to expansion territory while services activity remained in contraction.

The HCOB France Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 from 49.7 in May, beating expectations of 50.2 and moving above the key 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. The reading suggests industrial activity is stabilizing after a prolonged period of weakness, supported by improving demand and a more resilient European economic backdrop.

However, the services sector remained under pressure. The HCOB France Services PMI increased to 47.4 from 44.3 in May, exceeding forecasts of 45.9 but remaining below 50. While the data indicate the pace of contraction slowed significantly, activity in the country's largest economic sector continues to decline.
Eurozone Inflation Accelerates as Core Prices Rise Faster Than Expected

Inflation in the Eurozone accelerated in May, with headline consumer prices rising 3.2% year-over-year, matching expectations and increasing from 3.0% in April.

More notably, Core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—rose 2.6%, exceeding forecasts of 2.5% and accelerating from 2.2% in the previous month. The stronger-than-expected core reading suggests underlying inflationary pressures remain more persistent than policymakers had hoped.
Eurozone Investor Sentiment Turns Positive as ZEW Index Surges

Investor confidence in the Eurozone improved sharply in June, with the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rising to 9.5 from -9.1 in May, easily beating expectations for a reading of -7.2.
Eurozone Economy Shows Signs of Weakness as Trade Balance Turns Negative and Factory Output Misses Expectations

Fresh economic data pointed to a softer start to the second quarter for the Eurozone, with both trade and industrial production figures coming in below market expectations.

The Eurozone recorded a trade deficit of €1.0 billion in April, a sharp deterioration from the €4.9 billion surplus reported in the previous month and well below economists' expectations for a €7.8 billion surplus. The unexpected swing into deficit suggests external demand conditions weakened during the month and highlights ongoing challenges facing the region's export-oriented economies.

Industrial production also disappointed. Factory output rose just 0.1% month-over-month in April, missing forecasts for a 0.2% increase and slowing from the previous month's 0.4% gain.

The weaker-than-expected figures reinforce concerns that the region's recovery remains fragile. Europe's industrial sector continues to face headwinds from soft global demand, trade uncertainty, and uneven economic growth among key trading partners.
The final May PMI data paint a mixed picture for the Eurozone economy.

The HCOB Eurozone Services PMI rose to 47.7, comfortably above the 46.4 forecast and slightly higher than April's 47.6. While this is an improvement, the index remains below the 50 threshold, indicating that the services sector is still contracting, albeit at a slower pace.

More importantly, the HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services activity, came in at 48.5. This was stronger than the 47.5 consensus estimate but slightly below April's 48.8.
France's HCOB Services PMI fell to 44.3 in May, beating expectations of 42.9 but declining sharply from 46.5 in April.
Eurozone inflation accelerated in May, reinforcing concerns that underlying price pressures remain persistent despite the European Central Bank’s easing efforts. Headline CPI rose 3.2% year-over-year, matching expectations and increasing from 3.0% in April, while monthly inflation slowed sharply to 0.1% from 1.0% previously.

More importantly for policymakers, core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—climbed to 2.5% year-over-year, exceeding expectations of 2.4% and accelerating from 2.2% in April. The stronger-than-expected core reading suggests that underlying inflationary pressures remain more stubborn than anticipated.
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US Funds

Nasdaq Slides as Chip Sell-Off Accelerates, Dragging Semiconductor ETFs and AI Leaders Lower

The Nasdaq came under heavy selling pressure on Thursday after a relatively resilient start to the session, with semiconductor stocks leading a broad technology retreat. While the Dow Jones remained in positive territory, the Nasdaq fell more than 1.4% as investors aggressively sold chipmakers following their exceptional first-half rally.

The weakness was widespread across the semiconductor industry. Micron Technology (MU) dropped more than 7%, while SanDisk (SNDK) plunged over 15%, extending a sharp pullback that began after both companies posted massive year-to-date gains. Other major chip names, including Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO) and Western Digital (WDC) also traded lower as investors continued rotating out of AI infrastructure stocks.

The sell-off was equally visible in sector exchange-traded funds. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell roughly 7%, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) lost nearly 6%, highlighting broad-based weakness rather than company-specific concerns. The decline suggests investors are taking profits across the semiconductor sector after one of its strongest first-half performances on record.

Analysts point to a combination of factors behind the retreat, including profit-taking after extraordinary gains, concerns that AI-related chip valuations had become stretched, and signs that investors are rotating toward other parts of the technology sector. Recent reports suggesting cloud providers could optimize AI infrastructure spending have also fueled concerns that the pace of semiconductor demand growth may moderate, even as the long-term AI investment theme remains intact.

Despite Thursday’s sharp decline, many Wall Street analysts continue to view the move as a healthy correction rather than a change in the industry’s long-term outlook, arguing that AI-driven demand for advanced chips and memory products remains robust over the coming years.
State Street Investment Management launched the State Street IG Public & Private ABS ETF (PRAB), an actively managed exchange-traded fund designed to give investors broader exposure to investment-grade asset-backed securities across both public and private markets.

The fund invests in securities such as collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities, aiming to provide diversified income opportunities and potentially higher yields compared with corporate bonds of similar risk.

State Street said the ETF responds to growing investor demand for access to the global asset-backed finance market, which exceeds $20 trillion but remains underrepresented in traditional bond portfolios.
Business Wire
State Street Investment Management has expanded its MyIncome ETF lineup with the launch of five actively managed high yield corporate bond target maturity ETFs, adding to what it calls the industry’s first actively managed corporate target maturity ETF suite.

The new funds — My2027 (MYHA), My2028 (MYHB), My2029 (MYHC), My2030 (MYHD) and My2031 (MYHE) High Yield Corporate Bond ETFs — provide exposure to high yield bonds with matching maturity years from 2027 through 2031. The ETFs are designed to help investors build bond ladders that manage interest rate risk while offering predictable income and liquidity.

Managed by the firm’s fixed income team, the funds aim to maximize yield while preserving capital and managing liquidity, sector and issuer concentration risks. Each ETF is structured to distribute remaining principal and liquidate around December 15 of its respective maturity year. As of January 31, 2026, assets under management in the MyIncome suite totaled $298 million.

Source:Business Wire

Sector Momentum Favors Defense; QQQ Yet To Break; Split NDX Breadth

The stock market is clearly in defensive mode but QQQ is still holding up, and its long-term breadth still hasn't turned bearish. Arthur Hill's analysis identifies the key levels to watch.

(articles.stockcharts.com)
State Street Investment Management has launched the **State Street Prime Money Market ETF (MMK)**, an actively managed ETF designed to provide flexible, transparent, and cost-effective cash management.

The ETF aims to maximize current income while preserving capital and liquidity, investing in short-term, high-quality debt instruments such as U.S. government securities, certificates of deposit, commercial paper, asset-backed securities, mortgage-related securities, and repurchase agreements.

With an expense ratio of **18 basis points**, MMK is among the lowest-cost active prime money market ETFs in the U.S. As of December 31, 2025, State Street’s cash team managed approximately **$599.55 billion** in assets.

Source: Business Wire.

VantagePoint A.I. Asset of the Week iShares Silver Trust ($SLV) - VantagePoint $SLV

This week's ai asset spotlight is the iShares Silver Trust ($SLV) On December 3, 2025, we put $SLV front and center as our Asset of the Week and made one thing crystal clear: silver was no

(vantagepointsoftware.com)
I collected my first dividend from the FDVV ETF this week. It was not much—just $12—but it felt good to see the portfolio start to generate cash. Over time, I expect these payments to grow.

I am also spending time researching QQQI. It is a relatively new ETF and clearly carries more risk, especially since it focuses on large technology companies that may be somewhat overvalued right now. Still, I plan to allocate a small portion of my portfolio to it. The annual yield of around 13% is attractive, and I believe the tech and AI rally is likely to continue for at least another couple of years. If that plays out, QQQI could contribute meaningfully to overall returns.
Blackrock multi asset income monthly commentary ...

(blackrock.com)
State Street launches lowest-cost leveraged loan ETF in the U.S.

State Street Investment Management introduced the State Street SPDR S&P Leveraged Loan ETF (LVLN), giving investors broad, index-based exposure to the expanding leveraged loan market. With a 0.40 percent gross expense ratio, LVLN is now the lowest-cost leveraged loan ETF available in the U.S., according to Bloomberg data as of November 18, 2025.

The fund tracks the S&P USD Select Leveraged Loan Index, which includes U.S. dollar–denominated loans of at least 500 million dollars and applies issuer, facility and industry caps for diversified coverage. State Street says demand for leveraged loans continues to grow as investors seek income and low correlation to Treasuries and investment-grade corporate bonds.

The launch expands State Street’s fixed-income ETF lineup to include both active and index strategies targeting the rapidly growing loan segment.
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S&P 500

U.S. Stocks Mixed as Softer Inflation Boosts Tech While Dow Lags

U.S. stocks traded mixed in early trading on Tuesday as investors reacted to a softer-than-expected June inflation report that strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

The Nasdaq gained about 0.8%, supported by technology and growth stocks that typically benefit from lower interest rates. The S&P 500 also moved modestly higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped slightly as investors rotated away from some defensive and value-oriented sectors.

Markets welcomed the June CPI report, which showed headline inflation fell 0.4% month over month, while annual inflation slowed to 3.5%. Core inflation also came in below expectations, with monthly core CPI unchanged and annual core inflation easing to 2.6%. The weaker inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin easing monetary policy sooner than previously anticipated.

Technology stocks led gains across the broader market as lower interest rate expectations improved the outlook for high-growth companies. Investors also continued to monitor corporate earnings season, with company-specific results driving notable moves across individual stocks.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments remained in focus. Recent tensions between the United States and Iran continue to be monitored by investors, particularly after the exchange of military strikes over the past week. Although markets have largely shifted their attention back toward economic data and earnings, any renewed escalation could quickly affect risk sentiment and commodity prices.

Investors will continue watching upcoming economic releases, Federal Reserve commentary, and second-quarter earnings reports for further direction as markets assess the outlook for interest rates and corporate profitability.

Earnings season is about to kick off — 2 charts reveal how it may go

Wall Street is expecting a tranquil earnings season.

(finance.yahoo.com)

Stock market today: Dow rises, S&P 500 and Nasdaq slip as US and Iran exchange fire, oil jumps

Markets were subdued ahead of a busy week for markets, with inflation reports, bank earnings, and geopolitical risk hanging in the balance.

(finance.yahoo.com)
U.S. Markets Trade Mixed as Investors Monitor U.S.-Iran Conflict and Await Earnings Season

U.S. stocks traded mixed on Monday as investors balanced escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against expectations for upcoming corporate earnings and a resilient U.S. economy.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.23%, while the Nasdaq declined 0.88% as technology stocks came under pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed, edging 0.20% higher with support from industrial and defensive shares.

Investor sentiment remained heavily influenced by the latest developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Military exchanges between the two countries intensified in recent days, with both sides carrying out missile and drone strikes and uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continuing to fuel concerns over global energy supplies. The renewed escalation has pushed oil prices higher and added to inflation concerns, although markets remain hopeful that the conflict will not significantly disrupt global crude exports.

On the macroeconomic front, investors continued to digest recent data showing a mixed but generally resilient U.S. economy. Last week’s weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls and softer services activity reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could still ease monetary policy later this year. At the same time, moderating inflation indicators have helped support the broader outlook for risk assets.

The market is also shifting its focus toward the upcoming second-quarter earnings season, with major U.S. banks set to report results next week. Investors will closely watch corporate guidance for signs that earnings growth can continue despite elevated interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and higher energy prices.

Although the major indexes remain near record levels, today’s mixed performance reflects a cautious market environment as investors weigh the economic impact of rising geopolitical tensions against a still-solid U.S. economic backdrop. The direction of the U.S.-Iran conflict, oil prices, and the start of earnings season are likely to remain the primary drivers of market sentiment in the coming days.
US Stocks Edge Higher as Tech Shares Lead Early Gains

U.S. stocks traded modestly higher in early trading on Thursday, with technology shares helping lift the broader market as investors reacted to a fresh wave of corporate earnings and analyst upgrades.

The S&P 500 gained 0.15%, while the Nasdaq advanced 0.20%, outperforming the major indexes thanks to strength in semiconductor and AI-related stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also moved higher, rising 0.10%.

Semiconductor Stocks Extend AI Rally

Chip equipment makers led the market higher after several positive analyst actions.

Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX) surged in premarket trading after Mizuho raised its price target to $400 and reiterated its *Outperform* rating. Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) also received a higher price target from Mizuho, while Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) benefited from Evercore's reaffirmed *Outperform* rating and new $500 price target, adding to optimism surrounding continued AI infrastructure investment.

The gains reflect ongoing confidence that semiconductor capital spending will remain strong as demand for AI processors, advanced memory, and next-generation data center infrastructure continues to expand.

Earnings Drive Individual Stock Moves

Corporate earnings remained a key driver of early trading.

Simply Good Foods (NASDAQ: SMPL) soared after investors welcomed results that exceeded management's expectations despite lower year-over-year earnings, suggesting confidence in the company's turnaround strategy.

On the downside, PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP) declined after investors focused on softer underlying earnings growth and continued margin pressure despite higher revenue and reaffirmed full-year guidance. Northern Technologies International (NASDAQ: NTIC) also traded sharply lower after reporting a quarterly loss caused by margin compression from elevated raw material costs.

Investors Await More Earnings and Economic Data

Market participants remain focused on the upcoming earnings season as investors assess whether corporate profits can continue to support record equity valuations. At the same time, traders are monitoring economic data and Federal Reserve expectations for further clues on the outlook for interest rates.

The combination of resilient AI-related technology stocks and mixed earnings reactions across other sectors is helping keep the broader market in positive territory during Thursday's opening session.
Nasdaq Leads Wall Street Higher as Technology Stocks Rally Despite Softer U.S. Services Data

U.S. stocks traded mixed on Monday as investors weighed softer-than-expected economic data against continued strength in technology shares. The Nasdaq outperformed, climbing 1.1%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged the broader market, slipping marginally into negative territory.

Technology stocks led the advance, helping lift both the Nasdaq and the broader market as investors continued rotating into growth-oriented sectors. The rally came despite economic data pointing to a modest cooling in the U.S. services sector.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI edged down to 54.0 in June from 54.5 in May, missing economists' expectations of 54.2. Meanwhile, the S&P Global Services PMI also came in slightly below forecasts at 51.2. Although both readings remained above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, they suggested the pace of growth in the services sector moderated during the month.

At the same time, inflation pressures showed further signs of easing. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Index declined sharply to 67.7 from 71.3, indicating that input cost growth slowed, even though price pressures remain elevated.

The combination of softer business activity and moderating inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may have greater flexibility on interest rate policy later this year. Investors largely looked past the slightly weaker economic readings, focusing instead on the prospect of a more accommodative monetary environment, which provided support for high-growth technology stocks.

As trading continues, market participants remain focused on upcoming inflation reports and corporate earnings for further direction on the economy and the outlook for U.S. equities.
U.S. Markets Rise Despite Sharp Slowdown in Job Growth as Unemployment Falls

U.S. stocks finished higher on Thursday as investors balanced a much weaker-than-expected June jobs report against an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate, with optimism over the economy's resilience outweighing concerns about slowing hiring.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.77%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.54% and the Nasdaq added 0.39%.

The June employment report showed the U.S. economy added just 57,000 nonfarm payrolls, well below economists' expectations of 114,000 and sharply lower than May's revised 129,000. The data pointed to a significant slowdown in hiring and reinforced signs that the labor market is gradually cooling.

However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2% from 4.3%, while initial jobless claims declined to 215,000 from 216,000 and came in below the 219,000 consensus forecast. The lower unemployment rate and continued strength in weekly jobless claims suggested the labor market remains relatively resilient despite slower job creation.

The mixed employment data leaves the Federal Reserve facing a delicate balancing act. Slower payroll growth supports the case for future interest rate cuts, while the lower unemployment rate reduces the urgency for policymakers to ease monetary policy immediately.

Markets also continued to digest recent comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who reiterated this week that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and emphasized that future policy decisions will remain data dependent.

Investors will now turn their attention to upcoming inflation reports and additional labor market data for further clues on when the Federal Reserve may begin lowering interest rates.
U.S. Stocks Trade Mixed as Weak Jobs Data Pressures Tech While Dow Holds Gains

U.S. stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as investors weighed weaker-than-expected private employment data against growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates later this year.

At the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 80 points, or 0.15%, to 52,399.58. The S&P 500 slipped 0.05% to 7,495.76, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.29% to 26,138.87 as technology stocks underperformed.

# Weak ADP Jobs Report Signals Cooling Labor Market

Investor attention centered on the June ADP employment report, which showed U.S. private employers added 98,000 jobs, below economists' expectations of 118,000 and down from May's revised 122,000.

The softer-than-expected reading suggests the labor market is gradually cooling, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could gain greater confidence to lower interest rates if broader economic data continue to weaken.

Markets are now turning their focus to Friday's official nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to provide a clearer picture of labor market conditions.

# Technology Stocks Pause After Strong Rally

The Nasdaq lagged the broader market as investors took profits in technology shares following recent record highs.

Despite the modest pullback, AI-related companies and semiconductor stocks have remained among the market's strongest performers in recent weeks, supported by continued earnings optimism and robust investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

# Investors Await More Economic Data

In addition to labor market data, investors continue monitoring inflation trends and upcoming Federal Reserve communications for clues on the timing of potential policy easing.

While weaker employment data could support the case for lower interest rates, market participants remain cautious ahead of additional economic releases that could influence the Fed's outlook.

With Wall Street near record levels, investors are balancing optimism over potential monetary policy easing against signs of slowing economic momentum, leaving the major indexes little changed during Wednesday's session.
U.S. Stocks Rise as Nasdaq Outperforms on Strength in Technology Shares

U.S. stocks traded higher on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq leading the major indexes as investors continued to favor technology stocks while digesting a fresh round of economic data and easing geopolitical tensions.

At the time of writing, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.10% to 26,104.74, outperforming the broader market. The S&P 500 rose 0.53% to 7,480.15, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 107.69 points, or 0.21%, to 52,290.43.

# Technology Stocks Continue to Lead

The Nasdaq extended its gains as investors continued buying semiconductor and artificial intelligence-related stocks. Positive analyst actions across several chipmakers and sustained optimism over AI infrastructure spending helped lift the technology sector.

The rally in growth stocks came despite mixed economic data, highlighting investors' willingness to focus on long-term earnings opportunities within the AI ecosystem.

# Investors Digest Mixed Economic Data

Markets also reacted to a series of economic releases showing the U.S. labor market remains resilient.

The JOLTS report showed job openings exceeded expectations in May, while consumer confidence improved modestly in June. Meanwhile, the Chicago PMI slowed from the previous month but remained in expansion territory, suggesting manufacturing activity continues to grow at a more moderate pace.

# Risk Appetite Remains Strong

Investor sentiment has also been supported by easing geopolitical tensions following the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, reducing concerns over a broader regional conflict and encouraging a shift toward risk assets.

With economic data pointing to a resilient U.S. economy and AI-related stocks continuing to attract strong investor interest, Wall Street remained on track for another positive session, led once again by the technology sector.
US Stocks Climb as Easing U.S.-Iran Tensions Boost Risk Appetite

U.S. stocks traded higher on Monday as investors welcomed signs of easing geopolitical tensions after the United States and Iran agreed to halt military attacks and resume diplomatic talks, improving overall market sentiment. The prospect of reduced conflict in the Middle East helped fuel a broad risk-on move across Wall Street while easing concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies.

At the time of writing, the S&P 500 was up 0.53% to 7,393.33, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 317.74 points, or 0.61%, to 52,193.85. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 0.86% advance to 25,515.96, led by renewed buying in technology and growth stocks.

Technology shares led the market higher as investors returned to growth stocks following last week's volatility. Meanwhile, market participants continue to monitor upcoming U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve commentary for further clues on the outlook for interest rates.

For now, improving geopolitical sentiment and a stronger appetite for risk are providing the main tailwinds for U.S. equities, with all three major indexes trading comfortably in positive territory as the session continues.
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Spain

Eurozone Inflation Eases Further in June, Supporting ECB Policy Outlook

Eurozone inflation continued to moderate in June, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will have greater flexibility to continue easing monetary policy if disinflation remains on track.

Headline consumer inflation came in at 2.8% year over year, matching market expectations and slowing from 3.2% in May. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also met forecasts at 2.4%, down from 2.6% in the previous month.
Eurozone Inflation Cools More Than Expected in June

Inflation across the eurozone eased more than expected in June, reinforcing signs that price pressures continue to moderate and strengthening expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy outlook.

The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 2.8%, below economists' expectations of 3.0% and down from 3.2% in May.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also declined to 2.4% from 2.6% in the previous month, coming in below the consensus forecast of 2.5%.
Spain's Inflation Holds Steady in June, Keeping Price Pressures Elevated

Spain's inflation remained elevated in June, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) holding steady at 3.2% year over year, matching both May's reading and market expectations. Meanwhile, the country's EU-harmonized inflation rate (HICP) came in at 3.6%, unchanged from the previous month.
Eurozone Inflation Accelerates as Core Prices Rise Faster Than Expected

Inflation in the Eurozone accelerated in May, with headline consumer prices rising 3.2% year-over-year, matching expectations and increasing from 3.0% in April.

More notably, Core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—rose 2.6%, exceeding forecasts of 2.5% and accelerating from 2.2% in the previous month. The stronger-than-expected core reading suggests underlying inflationary pressures remain more persistent than policymakers had hoped.
Eurozone Investor Sentiment Turns Positive as ZEW Index Surges

Investor confidence in the Eurozone improved sharply in June, with the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rising to 9.5 from -9.1 in May, easily beating expectations for a reading of -7.2.
Eurozone Economy Shows Signs of Weakness as Trade Balance Turns Negative and Factory Output Misses Expectations

Fresh economic data pointed to a softer start to the second quarter for the Eurozone, with both trade and industrial production figures coming in below market expectations.

The Eurozone recorded a trade deficit of €1.0 billion in April, a sharp deterioration from the €4.9 billion surplus reported in the previous month and well below economists' expectations for a €7.8 billion surplus. The unexpected swing into deficit suggests external demand conditions weakened during the month and highlights ongoing challenges facing the region's export-oriented economies.

Industrial production also disappointed. Factory output rose just 0.1% month-over-month in April, missing forecasts for a 0.2% increase and slowing from the previous month's 0.4% gain.

The weaker-than-expected figures reinforce concerns that the region's recovery remains fragile. Europe's industrial sector continues to face headwinds from soft global demand, trade uncertainty, and uneven economic growth among key trading partners.
The final May PMI data paint a mixed picture for the Eurozone economy.

The HCOB Eurozone Services PMI rose to 47.7, comfortably above the 46.4 forecast and slightly higher than April's 47.6. While this is an improvement, the index remains below the 50 threshold, indicating that the services sector is still contracting, albeit at a slower pace.

More importantly, the HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services activity, came in at 48.5. This was stronger than the 47.5 consensus estimate but slightly below April's 48.8.
Spain's HCOB Services PMI rose to 50.1 in May, beating expectations of 48.2 and improving from 47.9 in April.
Eurozone inflation accelerated in May, reinforcing concerns that underlying price pressures remain persistent despite the European Central Bank’s easing efforts. Headline CPI rose 3.2% year-over-year, matching expectations and increasing from 3.0% in April, while monthly inflation slowed sharply to 0.1% from 1.0% previously.

More importantly for policymakers, core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—climbed to 2.5% year-over-year, exceeding expectations of 2.4% and accelerating from 2.2% in April. The stronger-than-expected core reading suggests that underlying inflationary pressures remain more stubborn than anticipated.
Spain’s labor market continued to improve in May, but the pace of job gains was weaker than expected. The number of unemployed people fell by 36,300, marking another month of declining unemployment, though the decrease was smaller than economists’ forecast of 56,800 and below the previous month’s decline of 62,700.
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NYSE:TSM

### TSMC (TSM) Rebounds in Premarket After Citigroup Reiterates Buy Rating

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE: TSM) rebounded in premarket trading on Monday after Citigroup reiterated its Buy rating on the chipmaker, helping restore investor confidence following Thursday's selloff.

TSMC shares fell 2.3% during Thursday's regular session but gained 2.4% in premarket trading after Citigroup reaffirmed its bullish stance on the stock.

The reiterated Buy rating reflects continued confidence in TSMC's long-term growth prospects as the world's leading contract semiconductor manufacturer. The reaffirmation comes as demand for advanced AI chips and high-performance computing remains a key driver for the company.

TSMC continues to benefit from strong capital spending by leading technology companies developing artificial intelligence infrastructure, with its cutting-edge manufacturing processes positioning the company at the center of the AI semiconductor supply chain.

The premarket rebound suggests investors looked past Thursday's weakness, with Citigroup's positive rating reinforcing expectations that TSMC remains well positioned to capitalize on long-term growth in AI, cloud computing, and advanced semiconductor demand.
TSMC Gains as Susquehanna Reiterates Positive Rating

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM) rose 1.2% after Susquehanna reiterated its Positive rating, underscoring continued confidence in the world's largest contract chip manufacturer.

The analyst's stance reflects optimism surrounding TSMC's dominant position in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, where the company remains a critical supplier to many of the world's leading technology firms. TSMC produces cutting-edge chips for customers including Apple, Nvidia, AMD, and numerous AI-focused companies.

Investor sentiment toward TSMC has remained strong as artificial intelligence spending continues to drive demand for advanced processors. The company is widely viewed as one of the most important beneficiaries of the global AI investment cycle because nearly every major AI chip designer relies on TSMC's manufacturing capabilities.

Demand for advanced process technologies, particularly 3nm and future 2nm nodes, is expected to remain robust as customers develop increasingly powerful AI accelerators, data center processors, and next-generation consumer devices.

The stock's advance also comes amid broader strength across the semiconductor sector, where analysts have recently raised expectations for AI-related capital spending and long-term industry growth. Recent bullish commentary on companies such as ASML, Applied Materials, KLA, Lam Research, AMD, and Micron has reinforced confidence in the semiconductor supply chain.

By maintaining its Positive rating, Susquehanna signaled continued confidence that TSMC's technology leadership and unmatched manufacturing scale position the company to remain a key beneficiary of the ongoing AI-driven semiconductor boom.

TSMC stock today: Taiwan Semi slips premarket on Nvidia H200 supply talks and a 2nm production update

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Synopsys (NASDAQ: SNPS) announced an expanded collaboration with TSMC to enable advanced 2D and 3D chip design solutions, targeting applications in AI, high-speed data communications, and advanced computing. The partnership integrates Ansys simulation and analysis tools into TSMC’s latest process technologies, including N3C, N3P, N2P, and A16, with certified workflows for power, thermal, and electromagnetic integrity.

The companies also introduced an AI-assisted optimization flow for TSMC’s COUPE photonic platform, aimed at shortening design cycles and improving quality for optical and photonic systems. By combining Synopsys’ 3DIC design tools with Ansys multiphysics platforms, the collaboration supports larger, more complex designs and enhances resilience against electrical stress, enabling chipmakers to accelerate development of energy-efficient, high-performance semiconductors for next-generation technologies.

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Synopsys and TSMC advance angstrom-scale chip design with certified EDA flows on A16 and N2P processes

Synopsys, Inc. announced continued collaboration with TSMC to accelerate semiconductor design at the angstrom scale, enabling AI and 3D multi-die innovation through advanced EDA and IP solutions certified for TSMC’s leading-edge A16 and N2P processes.

Key developments include:
- Certified digital and analog design flows for TSMC A16 and N2P, powered by Synopsys.ai, supporting improved power, performance, and design migration efficiency
- Ongoing development of EDA flows for TSMC’s upcoming A14 process
- Expanded 3D integration capabilities using Synopsys 3DIC Compiler and TSMC’s CoWoS® technology, supporting 5.5x reticle size interposers
- Certified IC Validator signoff physical verification for A16 and N2P, including 3Dblox and ESD rule support
- Broad portfolio of silicon-proven IP for high-speed interfaces including PCIe 7.0, 1.6T Ethernet, HBM4, UCIe, USB4, DDR5, LPDDR6, and MIPI standards
- Enhanced support for next-generation AI and HPC workloads with advanced PHY IP and integrated multi-physics analysis

Synopsys emphasized its role in delivering mission-critical tools and IP for cutting-edge system-on-chip (SoC) designs, enabling reduced development risk, faster time to market, and higher performance across a range of applications.
The emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI model demonstrating greater efficiency than prevailing technologies, raises concerns about potential overcapacity in AI infrastructure investment. DeepSeek's ability to deliver competitive results with fewer and less advanced semiconductors challenges the necessity of the massive quarterly investments in AI infrastructure, which exceed $50 billion. This shift could lead to more sustainable investment patterns, moderating revenue growth for AI chip makers while accelerating AI adoption through cost-efficient alternatives. However, geopolitical concerns and security issues may limit DeepSeek's adoption in Western markets, maintaining the dominance of existing AI chip leaders.

Source: Fitch Ratings
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