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US Stocks Rise as Treasury Bond-Market Support Eases Yield Pressure

U.S. stocks were mostly higher Wednesday as the Treasury Department’s expanded bond-buyback operations continued to support sentiment by easing pressure in the government debt market.

The S&P 500 was up 0.37% at 7,719.85, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.46% to 53,588.62. The Nasdaq Composite, however, slipped 0.05% to 26,277.81, giving back its earlier gains as technology stocks lagged the broader market.

Treasury Intervention Brings Relief to Bonds and Stocks

The main catalyst supporting risk sentiment was Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s move to bolster liquidity in the Treasury market. The department said it would at least double the maximum size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated Treasury securities, increasing operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion and targeting the 10- to 30-year portion of the curve.

Bond yields dropped sharply following the announcement. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell about 6 basis points to around 4.65%, while the 30-year yield declined roughly 9 basis points to around 5.20%. Treasury prices and yields move inversely.

The action has provided some relief after the recent surge in long-term borrowing costs became a major headwind for equities. The 30-year Treasury yield had climbed to around 5.34% on Tuesday, its highest level in nearly two decades, amid concerns over government borrowing, inflation, the U.S.-Iran conflict and elevated energy prices.

Dow Leads While Nasdaq Loses Momentum

The latest market action shows a divergence beneath the headline indexes. The Dow is now outperforming with a 0.46% gain, while the S&P 500 remains moderately higher. The Nasdaq has reversed its earlier advance and is trading slightly lower.

The reversal suggests that lower Treasury yields have not been enough to sustain the initial rebound in technology stocks. Growth and technology shares remain particularly sensitive to changes in long-term rates because higher yields reduce the present value of expected future earnings.

For the broader market, however, Treasury intervention has eased one of Wall Street’s most immediate concerns and helped stabilize financial conditions.

Investors will continue to monitor the Treasury market, oil prices and developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict. The Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes are also in focus for additional clues about the outlook for monetary policy, inflation and interest rates.
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Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate for Q3 Slips to 4.0%

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model lowered its estimate for U.S. economic growth in the third quarter of 2026 to 4.0%, down from the previous estimate of 4.3%.

Despite the downward revision, the estimate continues to point to a strong pace of U.S. economic expansion. A 4.0% annualized growth rate would indicate that economic activity remains resilient heading deeper into the second half of the year.

The slight downgrade from 4.3% suggests incoming economic data have modestly softened the model’s assessment of Q3 growth rather than signaling a major deterioration in the economic outlook.
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U.S. Stocks Fall as Iran Conflict, Rising Oil Prices and Treasury Yields Pressure Markets

U.S. stocks traded lower Tuesday as the continuing U.S.-Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher and intensified concerns about inflation and interest rates, with technology stocks leading the decline.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3% to 26,301, underperforming the broader market. The S&P 500 declined 0.49% to 7,707, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.06% at 53,429.

The risk-off move comes as hopes for a lasting resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict fade. Iran has shifted toward a more offensive military posture after efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the conflict stalled, while Washington declined to extend the temporary ceasefire.

Oil and Bond Yields Add Pressure

Energy markets remain one of the main channels through which the conflict is affecting U.S. equities. Brent crude rose for a third consecutive session Tuesday, trading around $91 per barrel and reaching its highest level in nearly three weeks as continued restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about global oil supplies.

Higher oil prices are feeding concerns that energy costs could keep inflation elevated, complicating the outlook for monetary policy.

Those concerns have spilled into the bond market. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.327%, its highest level since 2007, while the benchmark 10-year yield was also around 4.73%. The rise in long-term yields reflects a combination of inflation concerns related to the conflict and oil prices, alongside broader worries about U.S. borrowing and debt issuance.

The combination of higher energy prices and rising bond yields is particularly challenging for growth and technology stocks, helping explain the Nasdaq's sharper decline.

Latest U.S. Data Point to Softer Economic Momentum

Tuesday's economic releases added another layer of uncertainty.

U.S. housing starts dropped 12.4% month-over-month in July to an annualized 1.239 million units, well below expectations of 1.340 million and down sharply from 1.415 million previously.

Industrial production increased just 0.2% month-over-month in July, below the 0.3% forecast and previous reading. On a year-over-year basis, production growth slowed to 1.08% from 1.29%.

The labor market offered a somewhat stronger signal. Weekly ADP employment growth came in at 9,500 jobs, up from 8,300 previously.

Taken together, the data point to uneven economic momentum: employment continues to expand, but housing activity weakened sharply and industrial production grew more slowly than expected.

For Wall Street, however, geopolitics remains the dominant driver Tuesday. As long as the U.S.-Iran conflict keeps Brent crude elevated and pushes longer-term Treasury yields higher, pressure on equity valuations — particularly in the technology sector — is likely to remain a central market risk.
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U.S. Stocks Mixed as Strong Empire State Manufacturing Data Complicates Fed Outlook

U.S. stocks traded mixed Monday as investors weighed unexpectedly strong manufacturing data against continued strength in technology and AI-related shares.

The S&P 500 was down 0.14% at 7,774.51, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.34% to 53,548.44. The technology-heavy Nasdaq bucked the trend, rising 0.13% to 26,764.38.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index climbed to 20.6 in August from 15.6 in July, substantially exceeding the 10.6 market forecast and reaching its highest level in more than four years. New orders and shipments also recorded solid gains, pointing to stronger manufacturing activity in New York State.

The stronger report offered a positive signal for U.S. economic growth but also complicated the interest-rate outlook. Input-price pressures increased in the survey, potentially reinforcing concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to remain cautious about declaring inflation fully contained.

Technology stocks were providing support to the Nasdaq, with renewed strength in AI and semiconductor names helping the index outperform the broader market. Investors are also looking ahead to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes for additional clues on the policy outlook.

For Wall Street, the combination of resilient economic activity and easing inflation remains broadly constructive, but stronger growth and renewed price pressures could limit expectations for a more accommodative Fed.
Inflation is increasingly in focus for the US bond market and the Fed, says Mike Mitchell, head of US Treasury and Inflation Trading at Goldman Sachs.

(goldmansachs.com)
U.S. Stocks Slip as Weak Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment Raise Growth Concerns

U.S. stocks are trading modestly lower Friday after a weaker-than-expected batch of economic data raised fresh concerns about consumer demand and the near-term growth outlook.

The S&P 500 is down 0.07% at 7,793.67, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 0.18% lower at 53,741.48. The Nasdaq Composite is down 0.19% at 26,751.53.

Retail Sales Weaken in July

The main pressure comes from July retail sales. Headline retail sales fell 0.6% month over month, considerably weaker than the 0.1% increase expected by economists and reversing the previous month's 0.2% gain.

Core retail sales also disappointed, declining 0.3% compared with expectations for a 0.2% increase. The previous reading was a 0.2% decline.

The figures point to softer consumer spending momentum entering the second half of the year. Because household consumption remains a major driver of the U.S. economy, the downside surprise is reinforcing concerns that economic growth could lose some momentum.

Consumer Sentiment Falls as Inflation Expectations Rise

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for August dropped to 51.0 from 55.2, well below the 54.7 consensus estimate.

Consumer expectations weakened as well, falling to 50.6 from 55.4 and missing expectations of 55.2.

At the same time, one-year inflation expectations increased to 4.3% from 4.2%. The combination of weaker confidence and slightly higher inflation expectations presents a less favorable macro backdrop: consumers are becoming more cautious while inflation concerns remain elevated.

Why Are U.S. Stocks Down?

Friday's data create a mixed signal for monetary policy. Weak retail spending and deteriorating consumer confidence strengthen the case for easier Federal Reserve policy, but the increase in short-term inflation expectations could complicate that outlook.

The relatively small declines across the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq suggest investors are not treating the data as evidence of a severe downturn. Instead, the market reaction reflects renewed caution over whether softer consumer demand could begin weighing more materially on corporate earnings and U.S. economic growth during the second half of 2026.
U.S. Stocks Rally as Softer PPI Supports Rate-Cut Hopes

U.S. stocks moved sharply higher Thursday as investors welcomed softer-than-expected producer inflation data, while labor-market figures offered a mixed but still relatively stable picture.

The Nasdaq led gains, rising 0.97% to 26,845.93, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.84% to 7,813.91. The Dow Jones gained 0.50% to 54,041.72.

The main catalyst was July's Producer Price Index. Headline PPI was unchanged month over month, below the 0.2% increase expected and following a 0.1% decline previously. Core PPI increased 0.2%, also below the 0.3% forecast and slowing from 0.4%.

The softer producer-price figures reinforced expectations that inflationary pressures in the production pipeline remain contained, potentially giving the Federal Reserve greater flexibility to lower interest rates.

Labor data were somewhat less supportive. Initial jobless claims rose to 209,000, above the 202,000 expected and 200,000 previously. However, continuing claims declined to 1.777 million, better than the 1.800 million forecast.

The combination of cooling producer inflation without clear evidence of severe labor-market deterioration created a favorable backdrop for equities. Technology stocks responded particularly strongly, helping the Nasdaq outperform as lower inflation expectations improved the outlook for interest-rate-sensitive growth valuations.
Nasdaq Leads US Stocks Higher After Inflation Data Matches Expectations

U.S. stocks traded mostly higher Wednesday after July inflation data came in exactly in line with expectations, with technology shares outperforming as the report avoided an upside inflation surprise that could have renewed concerns over Federal Reserve policy.

The Nasdaq was the strongest major index, rising 0.48% to 26,573.43. The S&P 500 gained 0.19% to 7,742.85, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, slipping 0.03% to 53,776.39.

CPI Data Supports Technology Stocks

Headline U.S. CPI increased 0.1% month-over-month in July, matching expectations, while annual inflation eased to 3.4% from 3.5%.

Core CPI also matched forecasts, rising 0.2% monthly while the annual rate slowed to 2.5% from 2.6%.

The absence of an upside inflation surprise was particularly supportive for technology and other growth stocks. Cooling annual inflation reduces the risk that the Federal Reserve will need to return to a more aggressive monetary-policy stance, an environment generally favorable for higher-duration growth valuations.

However, because all four major CPI readings matched consensus estimates, the report did not provide a major dovish surprise. That helps explain the relatively moderate gain in the broader S&P 500 and the nearly flat Dow.

Nasdaq Outperforms Broader Market

The divergence among the major indexes points to stronger investor appetite for technology and growth stocks rather than a broad-based post-CPI rally.

The Nasdaq's 0.48% advance substantially outpaced the S&P 500's 0.19% gain, while the Dow remained slightly negative. AI and semiconductor shares continue to provide additional support to the technology-heavy index, alongside the favorable inflation reaction.

For Wall Street, the July CPI report largely preserves the existing macroeconomic narrative: inflation is gradually cooling, but remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. With the report producing no significant surprise, investors are likely to shift their attention toward upcoming economic releases and their implications for interest rates.

For now, the combination of easing annual inflation and no upside CPI shock is providing a modestly positive backdrop for U.S. equities, with technology stocks and the Nasdaq emerging as the clearest beneficiaries.
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall 1.7% in July as High Mortgage Rates Weigh on Housing

U.S. existing home sales declined 1.7% month over month in July 2026 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million units, down from 4.13 million in June. The headline level was roughly in line with market expectations of around 4.05 million.

According to the National Association of Realtors, sales were nevertheless 0.7% higher than a year earlier, marking a fourth consecutive annual increase. Housing inventory fell 1.9% from June to 1.54 million units, equivalent to 4.6 months of supply. The median existing-home price increased 2.0% year over year to $434,100.

According to Reuters, elevated borrowing costs remain a major constraint on the housing market, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate recently reaching 6.69%, its highest level since July 2025. Higher rates are discouraging potential buyers while also limiting supply as homeowners with lower-rate mortgages remain reluctant to sell.

Overall, the July report points to continued weakness in housing activity rather than a sharp deterioration. Sales remain subdued near the 4 million annualized level, with a more meaningful recovery likely dependent on lower mortgage rates and improved affordability.
U.S. 6-Month Treasury Bill Yield Falls to 3.830%

The U.S. Treasury's latest six-month bill auction produced a yield of 3.830%, down slightly from 3.855% at the previous auction.
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NYSE:TGT

Target Stock Jumps 5.2% as Sales Momentum Strengthens and 2026 Outlook Rises

Target (NYSE: TGT) shares climbed about 5.2% on Wednesday after the retailer reported strong second-quarter 2026 results, including accelerating comparable sales, robust digital growth and a significant improvement in earnings. The company also raised its full-year sales and earnings outlook.

While tariff refunds provided a substantial boost to reported profits, Target’s underlying results were also strong, with earnings growing even when that benefit is excluded.

Comparable Sales Rise 3.8% as Traffic Improves

Second-quarter net sales increased 5.3% year over year to $26.5 billion, while comparable sales rose 3.8%. Importantly, comparable traffic increased 3.6%, indicating that growth was driven largely by more customers rather than simply higher prices.

Digital comparable sales increased 8.7%, led by more than 25% growth in same-day delivery, while store comparable sales rose 2.7%.

Performance was also broad-based across Target’s merchandise portfolio. All six core categories recorded year-over-year sales growth, while Food & Beverage and Beauty delivered high-single-digit growth. Non-merchandise sales jumped 20.1%, supported by Target’s Roundel advertising business, Target Circle 360 memberships and the Target+ marketplace.

Earnings Double, Though Tariff Refunds Provide a Major Boost

Target reported EPS of $4.11, double the $2.05 recorded a year earlier. However, the headline increase included a substantial $1.65-per-share benefit from tariff refunds.

Even excluding that benefit, EPS increased approximately 20% year over year, providing a stronger indication of improvement in Target’s underlying profitability.

Gross margin also improved. Excluding tariff refunds, the gross margin rate expanded approximately 100 basis points from last year’s 29.0%, helped by lower markdown and purchase-order cancellation costs as well as growth in advertising and other non-merchandise businesses.

Target Raises 2026 Guidance

The upgraded outlook is likely one of the strongest catalysts behind the 5.2% stock gain.

Target now expects full-year net sales growth of around 5%, one percentage point above its previous guidance range. The company also raised GAAP and adjusted EPS guidance to $9.90-$10.90.

Even after removing the tariff-refund benefit, the midpoint of Target’s new earnings forecast is $0.75 above the midpoint of its previous $7.50-$8.50 guidance.

The combination of improving customer traffic, accelerating digital sales, broader category growth and higher underlying earnings expectations suggests Target’s operating recovery is gaining traction. For investors, maintaining this sales momentum without relying heavily on promotional activity will be an important factor to watch through the second half of 2026.
Target Falls 6.5% as Margin Pressure and Elevated Costs Overshadow Strong Sales Growth

Target dropped 6.5% today despite reporting first quarter net sales growth of 6.7%, well above expectations, as investors focused on the margin picture and a profits outlook that fell well short of what the topline momentum might have suggested.

Net sales for the quarter reached $25.4 billion, up 6.7% year over year, with comparable sales growing 5.6% — comprising a 4.7% increase in comparable store sales and 8.9% digital comparable growth. Traffic grew 4.4%, all six core merchandise categories grew year over year, and same-day delivery powered by Target Circle 360 surged more than 27%. Non-merchandise sales, including Roundel advertising revenue and marketplace fees, grew nearly 25%. By almost any topline measure, the quarter was genuinely strong.

The problem was profitability. First quarter adjusted EPS came in at $1.71, up 32% from last year's adjusted $1.30 but 24% below the prior year's GAAP figure of $2.27, which included non-recurring legal settlement gains. Operating income margin of 4.5% remained thin, reflecting higher compensation costs, increased capital project spending and elevated marketing expense, only partially offset by supply chain productivity gains, lower markdown rates and non-merchandise revenue growth. Gross margin improved modestly to 29.0% from 28.2%, but SG&A as a percentage of sales crept higher.

For the full year, Target raised its net sales growth outlook by two percentage points to around 4%, and guided for GAAP and adjusted EPS near the high end of the prior $7.50 to $8.50 range. Operating margin is expected to improve more than 20 basis points above 2025's adjusted 4.6%.

CEO Michael Fiddelke acknowledged encouraging early signs from the company's clarified strategy while tempering expectations, noting there is much more work ahead and emphasizing the need for discipline in an uncertain operating environment.

The 6.5% decline reflects a market that found the margin trajectory and thin operating profitability difficult to reconcile with a valuation that demands more than modest earnings growth — particularly on a day when TJX demonstrated what truly exceptional retail execution looks like.

Walmart vs. Target: Which Dividend King is the Better Buy?

Explore the key differences in the investment potential of Walmart vs. Target: which Dividend King is the better buy for you?

(thesmartinvestor.com.sg)
Target posts lower Q3 sales but stronger digital growth; maintains Q4 outlook

Target reported third-quarter net sales of 25.3 billion dollars, down 1.5% from 2024, as discretionary categories remained soft. Digital comparable sales rose 2.4%, led by more than 35% growth in same-day delivery via Target Circle 360. Food & Beverage and Hardlines delivered growth, while non-merchandise revenue jumped nearly 18% on strength in Roundel, membership and marketplace services.

GAAP EPS came in at 1.51 dollars versus 1.85 dollars last year. Adjusted EPS, which excludes severance and asset-related charges, was 1.78 dollars.

Ahead of the holiday season, Target is offering more than 20,000 new items — half exclusive to the retailer — deeply discounted Thanksgiving meals, lower everyday prices on thousands of essentials, and expanded next-day shipping coverage.

Management kept its guidance for a low-single-digit sales decline in Q4. Full-year GAAP EPS is expected between 7.70 and 8.70 dollars, and adjusted EPS between 7.00 and 8.00 dollars.

Comparable sales fell 2.7% in Q3, with store sales down 3.8% and digital up 2.4%. Operating income dropped 18.9% to 0.9 billion dollars including non-recurring items; excluding them, operating income was 1.1 billion dollars, with an adjusted margin rate of 4.4%.

Retail Stocks to Watch as Consumer Sentiment Collapses: Walmart, Target, and Home Depot

Retail stocks ...

(articles.stockcharts.com)
Target Enters $1 Billion 364-Day Credit Agreement

Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) announced that it entered into a new 364-day credit agreement on October 9, 2025, providing for loans of up to $1 billion, with the option to increase the facility by an additional $500 million. The agreement, led by Bank of America as administrative agent and Citibank as syndication agent, will mature on October 8, 2026.

The facility replaces Target’s previous $1 billion 364-day credit agreement dated October 15, 2024, which was scheduled to expire on October 14, 2025. Borrowings under the new agreement will bear interest at either a base rate or term SOFR rate plus an applicable margin tied to Target’s credit ratings. The company may convert outstanding loans at maturity into term loans due one year later.

The agreement includes standard covenants and default provisions, including a leverage ratio requirement for Target and its subsidiaries.
The board of directors of Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) has declared a quarterly dividend of $1.14 per common share, a 1.8% increase from the prior quarterly dividend of $1.12. The dividend is payable Sept. 1, 2025 to shareholders of record at the close of business August 13, 2025. The 3rd quarter dividend will be the company's 232nd consecutive dividend paid since October 1967 when the company became publicly held. With the increase announced today, 2025 is on track to be the 54th consecutive year in which Target has increased its annual dividend.
Target Corporation Completes $1 Billion Debt Offering

Target Corporation has successfully closed a $1 billion debt offering, consisting of two tranches of senior notes. The company issued $500 million of 4.350% Notes due 2028 and another $500 million of 5.250% Notes due 2036. The offering was completed on June 10, 2025, under an underwriting agreement dated June 5, with Barclays Capital Inc., Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC acting as joint book-running managers.

The debt securities were issued under Target’s automatic shelf registration statement filed in November 2023 and governed by the company’s existing indenture with The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, N.A. Proceeds from the offering are expected to be used for general corporate purposes.

This latest issuance reinforces Target’s ongoing capital management strategy while securing attractive long-term financing amid evolving market conditions.
Target Reports Q1 2025 Earnings: Sales Decline, but Digital Growth and Legal Gains Boost Profits

Target Corporation reported Q1 2025 earnings of $2.27 per share (GAAP), up from $2.03 a year ago. However, adjusted EPS, excluding $593 million in pre-tax gains from credit card interchange fee settlements, was $1.30. Net sales fell 2.8% year-over-year to $23.8 billion, with a 3.8% decline in comparable sales. Store traffic dropped 2.4%, while digitally originated comparable sales rose 4.7%, driven by over 35% growth in same-day delivery via Target Circle 360.

Operating income rose 13.6% to $1.47 billion, partly due to the litigation settlement. Excluding this, the operating margin was 3.7%, down from last year. Gross margin declined slightly to 28.2% due to higher markdowns and fulfillment costs. SG&A expenses were down 10.8%, benefiting from legal gains.

Target launched an "acceleration office" led by Michael Fiddelke to speed up execution of core strategic initiatives and improve performance. CEO Brian Cornell noted that while the quarter had bright spots—like the kate spade collaboration—the company remains focused on returning to sustainable growth.

For full-year 2025, Target expects a low-single-digit sales decline. GAAP EPS is projected between $8.00 and $10.00, with adjusted EPS estimated at $7.00 to $9.00.
The company returned $761 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in Q1 and reported a trailing twelve-month ROIC of 15.1%.
Target Corporation Announces Early Departure of Strategic Advisor Don H. Liu

MINNEAPOLIS – Target Corporation has announced the early termination of the transition agreement with Don H. Liu, who had been serving in a non-executive strategic advisor role since August 24, 2024. Mr. Liu voluntarily elected to conclude his advisory position effective April 18, 2025, ahead of the original end date of May 24, 2025, as outlined in the previously disclosed agreement.

Mr. Liu’s transition agreement was originally part of Target’s leadership succession planning, following his prior role as Executive Vice President and Chief Legal & Risk Officer. The agreement, filed as Exhibit 10.23 to Target’s Form 10-Q for the quarter ended November 2, 2024, provided for his continued service in an advisory capacity during the transition.

The company thanked Mr. Liu for his continued contributions and leadership throughout his tenure at Target.
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US Bonds

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US Stocks Rise as Treasury Bond-Market Support Eases Yield Pressure

U.S. stocks were mostly higher Wednesday as the Treasury Department’s expanded bond-buyback operations continued to support sentiment by easing pressure in the government debt market.

The S&P 500 was up 0.37% at 7,719.85, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.46% to 53,588.62. The Nasdaq Composite, however, slipped 0.05% to 26,277.81, giving back its earlier gains as technology stocks lagged the broader market.

Treasury Intervention Brings Relief to Bonds and Stocks

The main catalyst supporting risk sentiment was Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s move to bolster liquidity in the Treasury market. The department said it would at least double the maximum size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated Treasury securities, increasing operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion and targeting the 10- to 30-year portion of the curve.

Bond yields dropped sharply following the announcement. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell about 6 basis points to around 4.65%, while the 30-year yield declined roughly 9 basis points to around 5.20%. Treasury prices and yields move inversely.

The action has provided some relief after the recent surge in long-term borrowing costs became a major headwind for equities. The 30-year Treasury yield had climbed to around 5.34% on Tuesday, its highest level in nearly two decades, amid concerns over government borrowing, inflation, the U.S.-Iran conflict and elevated energy prices.

Dow Leads While Nasdaq Loses Momentum

The latest market action shows a divergence beneath the headline indexes. The Dow is now outperforming with a 0.46% gain, while the S&P 500 remains moderately higher. The Nasdaq has reversed its earlier advance and is trading slightly lower.

The reversal suggests that lower Treasury yields have not been enough to sustain the initial rebound in technology stocks. Growth and technology shares remain particularly sensitive to changes in long-term rates because higher yields reduce the present value of expected future earnings.

For the broader market, however, Treasury intervention has eased one of Wall Street’s most immediate concerns and helped stabilize financial conditions.

Investors will continue to monitor the Treasury market, oil prices and developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict. The Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes are also in focus for additional clues about the outlook for monetary policy, inflation and interest rates.
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U.S. Stocks Fall as Iran Conflict, Rising Oil Prices and Treasury Yields Pressure Markets

U.S. stocks traded lower Tuesday as the continuing U.S.-Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher and intensified concerns about inflation and interest rates, with technology stocks leading the decline.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3% to 26,301, underperforming the broader market. The S&P 500 declined 0.49% to 7,707, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.06% at 53,429.

The risk-off move comes as hopes for a lasting resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict fade. Iran has shifted toward a more offensive military posture after efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the conflict stalled, while Washington declined to extend the temporary ceasefire.

Oil and Bond Yields Add Pressure

Energy markets remain one of the main channels through which the conflict is affecting U.S. equities. Brent crude rose for a third consecutive session Tuesday, trading around $91 per barrel and reaching its highest level in nearly three weeks as continued restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about global oil supplies.

Higher oil prices are feeding concerns that energy costs could keep inflation elevated, complicating the outlook for monetary policy.

Those concerns have spilled into the bond market. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.327%, its highest level since 2007, while the benchmark 10-year yield was also around 4.73%. The rise in long-term yields reflects a combination of inflation concerns related to the conflict and oil prices, alongside broader worries about U.S. borrowing and debt issuance.

The combination of higher energy prices and rising bond yields is particularly challenging for growth and technology stocks, helping explain the Nasdaq's sharper decline.

Latest U.S. Data Point to Softer Economic Momentum

Tuesday's economic releases added another layer of uncertainty.

U.S. housing starts dropped 12.4% month-over-month in July to an annualized 1.239 million units, well below expectations of 1.340 million and down sharply from 1.415 million previously.

Industrial production increased just 0.2% month-over-month in July, below the 0.3% forecast and previous reading. On a year-over-year basis, production growth slowed to 1.08% from 1.29%.

The labor market offered a somewhat stronger signal. Weekly ADP employment growth came in at 9,500 jobs, up from 8,300 previously.

Taken together, the data point to uneven economic momentum: employment continues to expand, but housing activity weakened sharply and industrial production grew more slowly than expected.

For Wall Street, however, geopolitics remains the dominant driver Tuesday. As long as the U.S.-Iran conflict keeps Brent crude elevated and pushes longer-term Treasury yields higher, pressure on equity valuations — particularly in the technology sector — is likely to remain a central market risk.
Inflation is increasingly in focus for the US bond market and the Fed, says Mike Mitchell, head of US Treasury and Inflation Trading at Goldman Sachs.

(goldmansachs.com)
U.S. 6-Month Treasury Bill Yield Falls to 3.830%

The U.S. Treasury's latest six-month bill auction produced a yield of 3.830%, down slightly from 3.855% at the previous auction.
U.S. Treasury Auction Yields Rise Ahead of Fed Decision as Investors Demand Higher Returns

U.S. Treasury yields moved higher on Monday after the Treasury’s latest debt auctions cleared at higher yields than the previous sales, reflecting investor caution ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting and a busy slate of economic data.

The U.S. Treasury’s $69 billion 2-year note auction stopped at a high yield of 4.315%, up from 4.189% at the previous auction. Later in the day, the $70 billion 5-year note auction also cleared at a higher yield of 4.408%, compared with 4.200% previously.

The higher stop-out yields suggest investors demanded greater compensation to hold U.S. government debt, a sign that bond markets remain cautious about the outlook for interest rates and inflation. Treasury auctions are closely watched because they provide insight into investor demand for government securities and can influence borrowing costs across financial markets.

The auctions came just hours after softer-than-expected U.S. durable goods orders data, which pointed to moderating business investment but did little to change expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at this week’s policy meeting.

Higher Treasury yields can weigh on equity valuations, particularly in growth sectors such as technology, by increasing discount rates used to value future earnings.

With the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement, key inflation data, and earnings from several mega-cap technology companies all due later this week, investors are likely to remain focused on the bond market for further signals about the direction of monetary policy and the broader U.S. economy.
The U.S. Treasury's latest 10-year note auction attracted solid investor demand, with the high yield settling at 4.538%, modestly above the previous auction's 4.468% level.
The US 2-Year Treasury note auction cleared at 4.071%, significantly above the previous 3.812%.
The U.S. 10-year TIPS auction drew a yield of 2.169%, up from the previous 1.896%, indicating investors demanded higher real returns to hold inflation-protected government debt.
U.S. 30-year bond auction yield rose to 5.050%, up from the previous 4.876%.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury note auction came in weaker than the previous auction, due to today's inflation data.


High yield: 4.468%

Previous: 4.282%
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NASDAQ:ADI

Analog Devices Stock Slips 1% Despite Record Q3 Results and Strong Data Center Growth

Analog Devices (NASDAQ: ADI) shares fell about 1% on Wednesday after the semiconductor company reported record fiscal third-quarter 2026 results, despite strong revenue growth, sharply higher profitability and a record outlook for the fourth quarter.

The modest decline suggests investors may be taking profits or had already priced in a strong semiconductor recovery, as the headline numbers themselves showed considerable operating momentum.

Revenue Jumps 40% as Data Center and Industrial Demand Strengthens

Analog Devices reported third-quarter revenue of $4.02 billion, up 40% from $2.88 billion a year earlier. The company said growth was led by its Data Center and Industrial businesses as demand strengthened across its portfolio and geographic markets.

Profitability improved even faster. GAAP operating income jumped 97% to $1.61 billion, while operating margin expanded to 40.1% from 28.4%. Adjusted operating margin reached 50.0%, up from 42.2% a year earlier.

Adjusted EPS climbed 68% year over year to $3.45, while GAAP diluted EPS increased 163% to $2.74.

Cash generation also remained strong. Analog Devices generated $1.46 billion of free cash flow during the quarter and $4.94 billion over the trailing 12 months. The company returned approximately $1.7 billion to shareholders during Q3 through dividends and share repurchases.

Record Q4 Outlook Points to Continued Momentum

Management indicated that demand continued to strengthen during the quarter and issued what it described as a record fourth-quarter outlook.

For fiscal Q4, Analog Devices expects revenue of approximately $4.3 billion, plus or minus $100 million. Adjusted operating margin is projected at approximately 52%, while adjusted EPS is expected to reach $3.86, plus or minus $0.15.

The outlook indicates that momentum in Analog Devices' semiconductor businesses, particularly areas exposed to data centers and industrial demand, is expected to continue into the end of fiscal 2026.

Why Is ADI Stock Down?

The roughly 1% decline appears notable given the strength of the report. Revenue, margins and earnings all increased substantially, and management expects another record quarter.

The muted market reaction may therefore reflect elevated expectations heading into earnings rather than deterioration in the underlying business. With semiconductor and AI-related stocks already carrying substantial growth expectations, investors may have required an even larger earnings or guidance surprise to push ADI higher.

For investors, the key issue now is whether the strong Data Center and Industrial demand highlighted by management can sustain Analog Devices' current growth rate and expanding margins into fiscal 2027.
Analog Devices Falls 4.8% Despite Record Quarter as Guidance Fails to Impress

Analog Devices dropped 4.8% today despite reporting what CEO Vincent Roche described as a record quarter, with revenue and earnings both above the high end of guidance — a reaction that reflects a market where exceptional results are increasingly the baseline expectation for semiconductor companies riding the AI infrastructure wave.

Second quarter revenue came in at $3.62 billion, up 37% year over year from $2.64 billion, with growth across all end markets led by Industrial and Communications. Gross margin expanded 630 basis points to 67.3%, and operating income more than doubled to $1.38 billion, with operating margin surging 1,240 basis points to 38.1%. GAAP diluted EPS of $2.40 more than doubled from $1.14 a year ago, while adjusted diluted EPS grew 67% to $3.09. The company returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in the quarter through dividends and buybacks, and generated trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $4.6 billion, representing 36% of revenue.

Record bookings across Industrial, Automotive and Communications end markets gave management confidence to guide for Q3 revenue of $3.9 billion at the midpoint, implying continued strong sequential growth. Adjusted EPS guidance of $3.30 and adjusted operating margin of approximately 49% point to continued profitability expansion.

The selloff appears to be a classic case of buy the rumor, sell the news. With ADI shares having rallied strongly into the print and the broader semiconductor sector trading at elevated multiples, even a genuinely outstanding quarter with strong forward guidance was not sufficient to sustain the pre-earnings momentum. In a market laser-focused on Nvidia's after-market results today, investor attention and capital may simply be rotating toward the single largest AI data point of the quarter rather than reflecting any fundamental concern about Analog Devices' business trajectory.
Analog Devices, Inc. (Nasdaq: ADI) announced it will release financial results for the second quarter fiscal year 2026 at 7:00 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, May 20, 2026.
Analog Devices (Nasdaq: ADI) reported fiscal first quarter 2026 revenue of $3.16 billion, delivering year-over-year growth across all end markets, led by Industrial and Communications.

On a trailing twelve-month basis, the company generated $5.1 billion in operating cash flow and $4.6 billion in free cash flow, representing 43% and 39% of revenue, respectively. During the quarter, ADI returned $1.0 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and raised its quarterly dividend by 11% to $1.10 per share, marking its 22nd consecutive year of dividend increases.

Management highlighted continued bookings growth, broad strength in Industrial, and record orders in the Data Center segment. Despite ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, the company’s second-quarter revenue outlook signals a new high watermark, reflecting strong execution and exposure to both cyclical recovery and long-term secular growth drivers.

Source: PR Newswire
Analog Devices, Inc. (Nasdaq: ADI ) announced it will release financial results for the first quarter fiscal year 2026 at 7:00 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, February 18, 2026
Analog Devices launched ADI Power Studio, a unified suite of tools designed to streamline power management design and optimization. The platform integrates ADI’s well-known design tools, including LTspice, SIMPLIS, LTpowerCAD, and EE-Sim, into a cohesive ecosystem that supports engineers from concept to evaluation.

The release includes two new web-based tools: Power Studio Planner, for system-level power tree planning and efficiency analysis, and Power Studio Designer, for IC-level design with simulation, optimization, and component recommendations. These tools aim to shorten development cycles and improve design accuracy for complex, high-density electronic systems.
Analog Devices Issues $1.5 Billion in Senior Notes

Analog Devices has successfully issued $850 million in senior notes due 2028 and $650 million in senior notes due 2030. The 2028 notes carry a 4.250% annual interest rate, while the 2030 notes bear a 4.500% annual interest rate. Interest on both will be paid semi-annually, starting December 15, 2025.

The notes are unsecured and unsubordinated, with optional redemption features allowing early repayment under specific terms. The proceeds will support general corporate purposes. The issuance was completed through a public offering and underwritten by a syndicate led by BofA Securities.

ADI, TXN named top semiconductor picks by Citi

Investing.com -- Citi analysts have maintained their 2025 semiconductor sales forecast of an 8% year-over-year increase, despite April sales falling below seasonal expectations.

(finance.yahoo.com)
Analog Devices Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results Amid Growing Demand

On May 22, 2025, Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) reported fiscal second quarter results that exceeded guidance, highlighting strong year-over-year growth across all business segments. Revenue for the quarter reached $2.64 billion, a 22% increase from the same period last year, with notable contributions from industrial, automotive, consumer, and communications markets.

Key Financial Highlights (Q2 FY2025):
• Revenue: $2.64 billion (up 22% YoY)
• GAAP diluted EPS: $1.14 (up 87%)
• Adjusted EPS: $1.85 (up 32%)
• Operating margin: 25.7% (GAAP); 41.2% (adjusted)
• Free cash flow: $729 million (28% of revenue)
• $740 million returned to shareholders via dividends and stock repurchases

CEO Vincent Roche cited resilient performance despite global trade volatility, driven by demand at the "AI-driven Intelligent Edge." CFO Richard Puccio noted accelerating bookings across all markets and regions, indicating a cyclical recovery.

End-Market Revenue Breakdown:
• Industrial: $1.16 billion (44% of revenue, +17% YoY)
• Automotive: $849 million (32%, +24% YoY)
• Consumer: $318 million (12%, +30% YoY)
• Communications: $315 million (12%, +32% YoY)

Q3 FY2025 Outlook:
• Revenue: ~$2.75 billion ± $100 million
• GAAP EPS: ~$1.23 ± $0.10
• Adjusted EPS: ~$1.92 ± $0.10
• Operating margin: ~27.2% (GAAP); ~41.5% (adjusted)

The board also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.99 per share, payable June 18, 2025.
ADI emphasized its strong cash generation and continued focus on innovation, which positions it for sustainable long-term growth as digital transformation accelerates across industries.
Analog Devices, Inc. to Report Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results on Thursday, May 22, 2025
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S&P 500

Health Care and Consumer Stocks Lead U.S. Market as Technology Lags

U.S. equities remained broadly higher Wednesday afternoon, but sector performance showed a sharp divergence, with health care surging while technology and industrial stocks remained under pressure.

The S&P 500 was up about 0.32% as of 2:38 p.m. ET, supported by strong gains in health care, consumer discretionary, consumer staples and materials.

Moderna Cancer Vaccine Breakthrough Fuels Health Care Rally

Health care was by far the strongest S&P 500 sector, jumping 3.59%, with a major catalyst coming from Moderna and Merck’s positive late-stage cancer-treatment results.

Moderna shares more than doubled after the companies reported that the personalized mRNA cancer therapy intismeran, when combined with Merck’s Keytruda, reduced the risk of melanoma recurrence and spread compared with Keytruda alone. Merck shares also jumped about 10%, while the news sparked a broader biotechnology rally. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index climbed more than 4%, with BioNTech and other mRNA-related stocks also advancing sharply.

The results are particularly significant because they provide late-stage evidence that Moderna’s mRNA technology could have substantial applications beyond infectious-disease vaccines, improving sentiment toward the broader biotechnology industry.

Consumer discretionary was the second-strongest S&P 500 sector, rising 1.93%, followed by consumer staples at 1.46% and materials at 1.29%. Communication services gained 0.65%, while real estate advanced 0.52%.

Treasury Support Helps Broader Market

The broader improvement in sentiment also follows the Treasury Department’s move to expand liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated government securities. The action helped ease some of the recent pressure on Treasury yields, providing support to rate-sensitive areas of the equity market.

Real estate’s 0.52% advance is consistent with the easing in long-term yield pressure, as lower borrowing costs tend to improve the relative outlook for the sector.

Technology Remains Under Pressure

Despite the broader market advance, technology continued to lag. The S&P 500 Information Technology sector fell 0.65%, helping explain why the Nasdaq was struggling to participate in the broader rally.

Industrials were the weakest sector, declining 0.71%. Financials fell 0.28% and energy slipped 0.16%, while utilities edged 0.11% higher.

Wednesday’s sector performance therefore points to a significant rotation beneath the headline indexes. Rather than technology leading the market, the S&P 500’s advance is being driven primarily by health care — amplified by the Moderna-Merck cancer breakthrough — alongside strength in consumer and materials stocks.
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US Stocks Rise as Treasury Bond-Market Support Eases Yield Pressure

U.S. stocks were mostly higher Wednesday as the Treasury Department’s expanded bond-buyback operations continued to support sentiment by easing pressure in the government debt market.

The S&P 500 was up 0.37% at 7,719.85, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.46% to 53,588.62. The Nasdaq Composite, however, slipped 0.05% to 26,277.81, giving back its earlier gains as technology stocks lagged the broader market.

Treasury Intervention Brings Relief to Bonds and Stocks

The main catalyst supporting risk sentiment was Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s move to bolster liquidity in the Treasury market. The department said it would at least double the maximum size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated Treasury securities, increasing operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion and targeting the 10- to 30-year portion of the curve.

Bond yields dropped sharply following the announcement. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell about 6 basis points to around 4.65%, while the 30-year yield declined roughly 9 basis points to around 5.20%. Treasury prices and yields move inversely.

The action has provided some relief after the recent surge in long-term borrowing costs became a major headwind for equities. The 30-year Treasury yield had climbed to around 5.34% on Tuesday, its highest level in nearly two decades, amid concerns over government borrowing, inflation, the U.S.-Iran conflict and elevated energy prices.

Dow Leads While Nasdaq Loses Momentum

The latest market action shows a divergence beneath the headline indexes. The Dow is now outperforming with a 0.46% gain, while the S&P 500 remains moderately higher. The Nasdaq has reversed its earlier advance and is trading slightly lower.

The reversal suggests that lower Treasury yields have not been enough to sustain the initial rebound in technology stocks. Growth and technology shares remain particularly sensitive to changes in long-term rates because higher yields reduce the present value of expected future earnings.

For the broader market, however, Treasury intervention has eased one of Wall Street’s most immediate concerns and helped stabilize financial conditions.

Investors will continue to monitor the Treasury market, oil prices and developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict. The Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes are also in focus for additional clues about the outlook for monetary policy, inflation and interest rates.
S&P 500 Falls as Technology and Industrials Lead Sector Selloff

U.S. stocks remained under pressure Tuesday afternoon, with the S&P 500 down 0.58% as weakness in technology and industrial shares outweighed strong gains across defensive and energy sectors.

Information Technology was the weakest S&P 500 sector, falling 1.93%, making it a major drag on the broader index given its heavy weighting. Industrials followed with a 1.30% decline, while Communication Services fell 0.59% and Materials lost 0.58%.

Investors Rotate Toward Defensive Sectors

The selloff was far from uniform. Health Care led the market with a 1.75% gain, followed by Energy at +1.61% and Consumer Staples at +1.29%. Financials also advanced 0.63%.

The divergence points to a defensive rotation as investors reduce exposure to growth-sensitive areas while favoring sectors typically considered more resilient during periods of uncertainty.

Energy’s strength also comes amid elevated oil prices as the continuing U.S.-Iran conflict keeps geopolitical risk and concerns about energy supplies in focus.

With technology falling nearly 2% while Health Care, Energy and Consumer Staples post sizable gains, Tuesday’s sector performance suggests risk appetite remains fragile even as parts of the market continue to outperform.
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U.S. Stocks Fall as Iran Conflict, Rising Oil Prices and Treasury Yields Pressure Markets

U.S. stocks traded lower Tuesday as the continuing U.S.-Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher and intensified concerns about inflation and interest rates, with technology stocks leading the decline.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3% to 26,301, underperforming the broader market. The S&P 500 declined 0.49% to 7,707, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.06% at 53,429.

The risk-off move comes as hopes for a lasting resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict fade. Iran has shifted toward a more offensive military posture after efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the conflict stalled, while Washington declined to extend the temporary ceasefire.

Oil and Bond Yields Add Pressure

Energy markets remain one of the main channels through which the conflict is affecting U.S. equities. Brent crude rose for a third consecutive session Tuesday, trading around $91 per barrel and reaching its highest level in nearly three weeks as continued restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about global oil supplies.

Higher oil prices are feeding concerns that energy costs could keep inflation elevated, complicating the outlook for monetary policy.

Those concerns have spilled into the bond market. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.327%, its highest level since 2007, while the benchmark 10-year yield was also around 4.73%. The rise in long-term yields reflects a combination of inflation concerns related to the conflict and oil prices, alongside broader worries about U.S. borrowing and debt issuance.

The combination of higher energy prices and rising bond yields is particularly challenging for growth and technology stocks, helping explain the Nasdaq's sharper decline.

Latest U.S. Data Point to Softer Economic Momentum

Tuesday's economic releases added another layer of uncertainty.

U.S. housing starts dropped 12.4% month-over-month in July to an annualized 1.239 million units, well below expectations of 1.340 million and down sharply from 1.415 million previously.

Industrial production increased just 0.2% month-over-month in July, below the 0.3% forecast and previous reading. On a year-over-year basis, production growth slowed to 1.08% from 1.29%.

The labor market offered a somewhat stronger signal. Weekly ADP employment growth came in at 9,500 jobs, up from 8,300 previously.

Taken together, the data point to uneven economic momentum: employment continues to expand, but housing activity weakened sharply and industrial production grew more slowly than expected.

For Wall Street, however, geopolitics remains the dominant driver Tuesday. As long as the U.S.-Iran conflict keeps Brent crude elevated and pushes longer-term Treasury yields higher, pressure on equity valuations — particularly in the technology sector — is likely to remain a central market risk.
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S&P 500 Slips as Energy Leads While Consumer and Communication Stocks Weigh

U.S. stocks traded lower Monday afternoon, with weakness across consumer-related and communication services shares outweighing gains in energy and selected technology stocks.

The S&P 500 fell 0.31% to 7,761.71 as of around 1:21 p.m. ET, with seven of the index’s 11 major sectors trading in negative territory.

Energy was the strongest sector, rising 0.75%, as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz supported crude oil prices and energy shares. Industrials followed with a 0.42% gain, while health care added 0.09%.

Information technology was narrowly positive, up 0.06%, but the headline number masked substantial strength among semiconductor and memory stocks. Sandisk, Micron and Marvell were among the notable gainers as enthusiasm around AI infrastructure and memory demand continued to support chipmakers.

Consumer and Communication Stocks Lead Declines

Communication services was the session’s weakest S&P 500 sector, falling 1.54%. Consumer staples dropped 1.37%, while consumer discretionary declined 1.27%. Real estate, utilities, materials and financials also traded lower.

The weakness comes as investors remain cautious about the U.S. consumer following Friday’s disappointing retail-sales data, while markets await earnings from major retailers including Walmart, Target and Home Depot for additional evidence on household spending conditions.

Interest rates are also back in focus. The 10-year Treasury yield moved toward 4.70% after the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index climbed to 20.6 in August, well above expectations of 10.6. The stronger economic reading adds another layer of uncertainty to the Federal Reserve outlook.

Monday’s sector performance shows a distinctly defensive and selective market rather than a broad selloff. Energy and AI-related semiconductor strength are providing support, but weakness across consumer-oriented sectors and communication services is keeping the S&P 500 in negative territory.
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U.S. Stocks Mixed as Strong Empire State Manufacturing Data Complicates Fed Outlook

U.S. stocks traded mixed Monday as investors weighed unexpectedly strong manufacturing data against continued strength in technology and AI-related shares.

The S&P 500 was down 0.14% at 7,774.51, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.34% to 53,548.44. The technology-heavy Nasdaq bucked the trend, rising 0.13% to 26,764.38.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index climbed to 20.6 in August from 15.6 in July, substantially exceeding the 10.6 market forecast and reaching its highest level in more than four years. New orders and shipments also recorded solid gains, pointing to stronger manufacturing activity in New York State.

The stronger report offered a positive signal for U.S. economic growth but also complicated the interest-rate outlook. Input-price pressures increased in the survey, potentially reinforcing concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to remain cautious about declaring inflation fully contained.

Technology stocks were providing support to the Nasdaq, with renewed strength in AI and semiconductor names helping the index outperform the broader market. Investors are also looking ahead to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes for additional clues on the policy outlook.

For Wall Street, the combination of resilient economic activity and easing inflation remains broadly constructive, but stronger growth and renewed price pressures could limit expectations for a more accommodative Fed.

The Best Five Sectors This Week #78

Julius de Kempenaer presents his weekly update on US sector rotation using Relative Rotation Graphs.

(articles.stockcharts.com)
U.S. Stocks Slip as Weak Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment Raise Growth Concerns

U.S. stocks are trading modestly lower Friday after a weaker-than-expected batch of economic data raised fresh concerns about consumer demand and the near-term growth outlook.

The S&P 500 is down 0.07% at 7,793.67, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 0.18% lower at 53,741.48. The Nasdaq Composite is down 0.19% at 26,751.53.

Retail Sales Weaken in July

The main pressure comes from July retail sales. Headline retail sales fell 0.6% month over month, considerably weaker than the 0.1% increase expected by economists and reversing the previous month's 0.2% gain.

Core retail sales also disappointed, declining 0.3% compared with expectations for a 0.2% increase. The previous reading was a 0.2% decline.

The figures point to softer consumer spending momentum entering the second half of the year. Because household consumption remains a major driver of the U.S. economy, the downside surprise is reinforcing concerns that economic growth could lose some momentum.

Consumer Sentiment Falls as Inflation Expectations Rise

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for August dropped to 51.0 from 55.2, well below the 54.7 consensus estimate.

Consumer expectations weakened as well, falling to 50.6 from 55.4 and missing expectations of 55.2.

At the same time, one-year inflation expectations increased to 4.3% from 4.2%. The combination of weaker confidence and slightly higher inflation expectations presents a less favorable macro backdrop: consumers are becoming more cautious while inflation concerns remain elevated.

Why Are U.S. Stocks Down?

Friday's data create a mixed signal for monetary policy. Weak retail spending and deteriorating consumer confidence strengthen the case for easier Federal Reserve policy, but the increase in short-term inflation expectations could complicate that outlook.

The relatively small declines across the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq suggest investors are not treating the data as evidence of a severe downturn. Instead, the market reaction reflects renewed caution over whether softer consumer demand could begin weighing more materially on corporate earnings and U.S. economic growth during the second half of 2026.
U.S. Stocks Rally as Softer PPI Supports Rate-Cut Hopes

U.S. stocks moved sharply higher Thursday as investors welcomed softer-than-expected producer inflation data, while labor-market figures offered a mixed but still relatively stable picture.

The Nasdaq led gains, rising 0.97% to 26,845.93, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.84% to 7,813.91. The Dow Jones gained 0.50% to 54,041.72.

The main catalyst was July's Producer Price Index. Headline PPI was unchanged month over month, below the 0.2% increase expected and following a 0.1% decline previously. Core PPI increased 0.2%, also below the 0.3% forecast and slowing from 0.4%.

The softer producer-price figures reinforced expectations that inflationary pressures in the production pipeline remain contained, potentially giving the Federal Reserve greater flexibility to lower interest rates.

Labor data were somewhat less supportive. Initial jobless claims rose to 209,000, above the 202,000 expected and 200,000 previously. However, continuing claims declined to 1.777 million, better than the 1.800 million forecast.

The combination of cooling producer inflation without clear evidence of severe labor-market deterioration created a favorable backdrop for equities. Technology stocks responded particularly strongly, helping the Nasdaq outperform as lower inflation expectations improved the outlook for interest-rate-sensitive growth valuations.
Nasdaq Leads US Stocks Higher After Inflation Data Matches Expectations

U.S. stocks traded mostly higher Wednesday after July inflation data came in exactly in line with expectations, with technology shares outperforming as the report avoided an upside inflation surprise that could have renewed concerns over Federal Reserve policy.

The Nasdaq was the strongest major index, rising 0.48% to 26,573.43. The S&P 500 gained 0.19% to 7,742.85, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, slipping 0.03% to 53,776.39.

CPI Data Supports Technology Stocks

Headline U.S. CPI increased 0.1% month-over-month in July, matching expectations, while annual inflation eased to 3.4% from 3.5%.

Core CPI also matched forecasts, rising 0.2% monthly while the annual rate slowed to 2.5% from 2.6%.

The absence of an upside inflation surprise was particularly supportive for technology and other growth stocks. Cooling annual inflation reduces the risk that the Federal Reserve will need to return to a more aggressive monetary-policy stance, an environment generally favorable for higher-duration growth valuations.

However, because all four major CPI readings matched consensus estimates, the report did not provide a major dovish surprise. That helps explain the relatively moderate gain in the broader S&P 500 and the nearly flat Dow.

Nasdaq Outperforms Broader Market

The divergence among the major indexes points to stronger investor appetite for technology and growth stocks rather than a broad-based post-CPI rally.

The Nasdaq's 0.48% advance substantially outpaced the S&P 500's 0.19% gain, while the Dow remained slightly negative. AI and semiconductor shares continue to provide additional support to the technology-heavy index, alongside the favorable inflation reaction.

For Wall Street, the July CPI report largely preserves the existing macroeconomic narrative: inflation is gradually cooling, but remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. With the report producing no significant surprise, investors are likely to shift their attention toward upcoming economic releases and their implications for interest rates.

For now, the combination of easing annual inflation and no upside CPI shock is providing a modestly positive backdrop for U.S. equities, with technology stocks and the Nasdaq emerging as the clearest beneficiaries.
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NYSE:WMT

Walmart Completes Vibe*co Acquisition to Expand Connected TV Advertising Business

Walmart announced it has completed its acquisition of Vibe*co, a self-service connected TV (CTV) advertising platform, strengthening Walmart Connect's commerce media business and expanding its presence in streaming television advertising.

The acquisition combines Vibe*co's self-service advertising platform with Walmart Connect's retail media capabilities, enabling advertisers to plan, purchase and measure streaming TV campaigns more easily. Walmart said the deal will make connected TV advertising more accessible for businesses of all sizes while helping brands better connect advertising campaigns with measurable shopping outcomes.

Vibe*co, founded in 2021, has developed a platform used by more than 10,000 advertisers to launch streaming TV campaigns across premium publishers through simplified campaign management, flexible budgets and AI-powered optimization.

Walmart said the acquisition will enhance Walmart Connect's ability to deliver closed-loop advertising solutions by integrating first-party customer insights with streaming, digital and in-store advertising channels. The company expects the transaction to create new opportunities for suppliers, marketplace sellers and brands to reach customers throughout the shopping journey while improving campaign measurement and effectiveness.

The acquisition reflects Walmart's continued investment in its rapidly growing advertising business as retailers increasingly expand beyond traditional retail operations into high-margin retail media and digital advertising services.
Walmart Gains 1% as Investors Favor Defensive Stocks Despite Analyst Downgrade

Walmart shares rose 1% on Friday, outperforming the broader market as investors sought safety in defensive sectors during a sharp selloff that pushed major technology indexes significantly lower.

The gain came even as Erste Group Bank downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold. While downgrades often pressure shares, the market appeared more focused on Walmart's defensive characteristics and resilient business model amid growing economic uncertainty.

As concerns about higher-for-longer interest rates weighed heavily on technology and growth stocks, investors rotated into companies with stable earnings, strong cash flow, and consistent consumer demand. Walmart is widely viewed as one of the largest beneficiaries of this type of market environment due to its dominant position in grocery retailing and its ability to attract consumers across income levels.

The retailer has also strengthened its competitive position through investments in e-commerce, delivery services, advertising, and membership offerings. These higher-margin businesses have helped diversify revenue streams and improve profitability beyond traditional retail operations.

Friday's positive performance suggests investors remain confident in Walmart's ability to navigate a potentially slower economic environment. Historically, the company has performed relatively well during periods of economic uncertainty as consumers increasingly prioritize value and essential purchases.

The divergence between the analyst downgrade and the stock's gain highlights the current market dynamic. While some analysts may see more limited upside after Walmart's strong performance over recent years, investors continue to view the company as a high-quality defensive holding capable of delivering steady growth and earnings stability even as broader market volatility increases.

With interest-rate expectations remaining elevated and economic uncertainty persisting, Walmart's combination of scale, pricing power, and essential consumer exposure continues to make it an attractive destination for investors seeking stability in an increasingly turbulent market environment.
Walmart Falls 7% Despite Solid Quarter as Guidance Disappoints Investors

Walmart dropped 7% after the world's largest retailer reported a broadly solid first quarter but issued second quarter guidance and reiterated full-year commentary that left investors wanting more, particularly against the backdrop of a macro environment where consumer staples companies are expected to demonstrate resilience.

Revenue for Q1 came in at $177.8 billion, up 7.3% year over year or 5.9% in constant currency — a healthy topline for a company of Walmart's scale. Global eCommerce sales grew 26%, led by store-fulfilled pickup and delivery and marketplace, continuing the digital transformation that has been central to Walmart's investment thesis. The global advertising business surged 37%, with Walmart US advertising up 36%, and membership fee revenue grew 17.4% globally — both high-margin revenue streams that point to the structural evolution of the business beyond traditional retail. Gross profit rate improved 6 basis points, led by Walmart US. Operating income grew 5.0%, or 5.1% on an adjusted constant currency basis. GAAP EPS was $0.67 and adjusted EPS was $0.66.

On the surface these are respectable numbers. The issue for investors lies in what comes next. The company reiterated its full-year fiscal 2027 outlook rather than raising it, and the Q2 guidance it issued apparently failed to clear the bar a market had set following strong results from TJX and other retailers this week. Inventory was up 8.9%, partly reflecting timing of receipts and strong grocery demand, but elevated inventory levels require monitoring in a demand environment that remains uncertain.

The 7% decline is steep for a company that delivered mid-single digit operating income growth and accelerating digital revenue. It reflects a market that had priced in a guidance raise following weeks of positive retail sentiment, and found instead a company that is performing well but choosing to hold its cards rather than signal acceleration. In the current environment, where every retailer faces tariff cost pressures and consumer spending uncertainty, a reiterated rather than raised outlook was read as a cautious message regardless of the underlying momentum.
Walmart reported continued growth momentum, with revenue increasing 5.1% in constant currency to $715.9 billion and profit rising 5.4% on an adjusted basis. The company’s global eCommerce sales surged 24% to $150.4 billion, supported by strong performance across marketplace, advertising, and membership segments.

Operating cash flow reached $41.6 billion, while Walmart returned $15.6 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. The company also highlighted rapid expansion in advertising revenue and ongoing investments in technology, including AI-driven tools to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency.

Management emphasized that the integration of physical stores and digital platforms, along with supply chain innovation, continues to strengthen Walmart’s business model and support future growth.

Source: Walmart
Walmart reported continued growth momentum, with revenue increasing 5.1% in constant currency to $715.9 billion and profit rising 5.4% on an adjusted basis. The company’s global eCommerce sales surged 24% to $150.4 billion, supported by strong performance across marketplace, advertising, and membership segments.

Operating cash flow reached $41.6 billion, while Walmart returned $15.6 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. The company also highlighted rapid expansion in advertising revenue and ongoing investments in technology, including AI-driven tools to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency.

Management emphasized that the integration of physical stores and digital platforms, along with supply chain innovation, continues to strengthen Walmart’s business model and support future growth.

Source: Walmart
Walmart announced a major redesign of its flagship private label brand, Great Value, marking its first full refresh in over a decade.

The update introduces a modern visual identity aimed at improving product visibility and ease of shopping across both stores and digital platforms, while maintaining the same product quality and pricing. The redesign will cover nearly 10,000 items, making it the largest private brand update in the company’s history.

Walmart said the rollout will be phased over the next two years, starting with select product categories. The initiative is part of the retailer’s broader strategy to enhance customer experience and adapt to evolving consumer preferences, while continuing to emphasize affordability and consistency.

The company noted that Great Value products are present in most U.S. households and play a key role in delivering cost savings compared to national brands.
Walmart Inc. has launched a new business unit, Upstream Facility Services, expanding its in-house maintenance capabilities to serve external companies across the United States.

The new offering leverages Walmart’s extensive operational scale and expertise developed across its network of stores and Sam’s Club locations. Upstream will provide services including HVAC, refrigeration, electrical, plumbing, and general maintenance, targeting businesses with multi-location operations where uptime and efficiency are critical.

The service model combines urgent repairs, preventive maintenance, and predictive solutions, supported by a nationwide network of technicians positioned close to customer sites. Clients will also benefit from real-time visibility into service performance, enabling improved planning and faster decision-making.

With this move, Walmart aims to commercialize one of the largest in-house facility service operations in the country, helping businesses reduce downtime, extend asset life, and improve operational consistency.
Walmart Launches ‘The Devil Wears Prada’ Inspired Fashion Collection

Walmart has unveiled a limited-time “The Devil Wears Prada Scoop Collection,” bringing high-fashion inspiration to its affordable private-label lineup.

The collection, part of Walmart’s exclusive Scoop brand, draws on the iconic style of *The Devil Wears Prada* and features tailored blazers, structured dresses, denim sets, and statement accessories designed to reflect New York-inspired fashion trends.

Priced between $16 and $54, the range aims to deliver trend-forward styles at accessible price points. Pre-orders began on April 9 via Walmart*com, with a full launch scheduled for April 20 across online channels and select U.S. stores.

The release highlights Walmart’s ongoing strategy to expand its fashion offerings and appeal to style-conscious consumers seeking value-driven apparel.
Walmart and VIZIO announced new integrations to expand their content-to-commerce ecosystem, combining streaming, advertising, and retail data to deliver measurable outcomes for brands.

The partnership will introduce a unified account system allowing users to log into VIZIO smart TVs using Walmart credentials, enabling seamless linkage between viewing behavior and purchasing activity.

The companies also unveiled new branded content initiatives and advertising capabilities, including product placement integrations and closed-loop measurement tools, aiming to strengthen the connection between entertainment and retail commerce.
Walmart announced that digital shelf labels (DSLs) are now live in approximately 2,300 U.S. stores, with full chain-wide deployment expected within the next year.

The technology replaces paper price tags with centrally managed digital displays, allowing associates to execute approved price updates through a secure internal system. Pricing remains consistent for all customers within a store and does not vary by demand, time of day or shopper profile. Updates are typically pushed outside shopping hours to ensure price stability during the day and alignment with Walmart’s Everyday Low Price (EDLP) model.

Operational impact is the primary driver:

• Price changes that previously required manual tag replacement across tens of thousands of SKUs can now be completed in minutes.
• “Stock to Light” functionality enables associates to activate LED indicators on shelf labels to quickly locate items requiring restocking.
• “Pick to Light” supports faster and more accurate online order fulfillment by guiding associates to products during pickup and delivery preparation.

With more than 120,000 items in a typical store and thousands of weekly price adjustments, the efficiency gains reduce repetitive manual tasks and redirect labor toward customer service, merchandising standards and inventory management.

Walmart also emphasized that DSLs operate on a closed system. They do not include cameras or microphones and do not collect shopper data.

The rollout represents an operational modernization initiative focused on labor productivity, price accuracy and paper waste reduction, rather than dynamic pricing.
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NYSE:LOW

Lowe’s Stock Rises 2.2% as Pro and Online Growth Offset Weak DIY Demand

Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW) shares rose about 2.2% on Wednesday after the home-improvement retailer reported second-quarter 2026 results showing continued comparable-sales growth, strong momentum in its Pro and digital businesses, and resilient profitability despite persistent pressure on discretionary DIY spending.

The positive stock reaction comes even as Lowe’s narrowed its full-year outlook toward the lower end of its previous ranges, suggesting investors are focusing on underlying business momentum and the company’s ability to maintain earnings in a difficult home-improvement environment.

Sales Rise as Pro and Online Businesses Strengthen

Second-quarter sales increased to $26.0 billion from $24.0 billion a year earlier. Comparable sales rose 0.2%, marking Lowe’s fifth consecutive quarter of positive comparable-sales growth.

Growth was led by Pro customers and home services, while online sales jumped 15.7%. These gains helped offset continued weakness in discretionary DIY spending, which remains sensitive to housing-market conditions and consumer spending patterns.

Net earnings reached $2.4 billion, while diluted EPS was unchanged from a year earlier at $4.27. Excluding $96 million of pre-tax expenses related to the acquisitions of Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group, adjusted EPS increased 1.6% to $4.40.

Both reported and adjusted EPS included an $0.11 benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds.

Lowe’s Narrows 2026 Outlook

The main weakness in the report came from Lowe’s updated full-year guidance. The company now expects fiscal 2026 sales of approximately $92 billion, compared with its previous $92 billion-$94 billion range.

Comparable sales are now expected to be flat, versus the previous forecast of flat to 2% growth. Adjusted EPS is projected at approximately $12.25, compared with the previous $12.25-$12.75 range, while adjusted operating margin is expected at 11.6%.

The guidance reduction indicates that Lowe’s continues to expect a challenging consumer environment, particularly for larger discretionary DIY projects.

Why LOW Stock Is Rising

Despite the softer full-year outlook, Wednesday’s 2.2% gain likely reflects several encouraging underlying trends. Pro, online and home-services sales continue to grow, comparable sales remained positive despite weak DIY demand, and adjusted EPS still increased year over year.

For investors, the report also provides evidence that Lowe’s efforts to expand beyond its traditional DIY customer base are helping make the business more resilient. The strength of its Pro segment is particularly important as Lowe’s competes with Home Depot for professional contractors and larger project spending.

The key issue ahead will be whether continued growth in Pro and digital channels can offset prolonged weakness in discretionary home-improvement demand during the second half of 2026.
Lowe's Slips 2.6% as Tepid Comp Sales and Acquisition Costs Disappoint Alongside TJX's Blowout

Lowe's fell 2.6% today in a session where the contrast with TJX's standout performance next door in the retail space could hardly have been sharper. The home improvement giant delivered a solid but uninspiring first quarter that affirmed rather than raised its full-year outlook, leaving investors wanting more.

Total sales for the quarter ended May 1, 2026 came in at $23.1 billion, up from $20.9 billion a year ago, with the increase largely reflecting the acquisitions of Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group rather than organic momentum. Comparable sales grew just 0.6%, the fourth consecutive positive comp quarter but a figure that signals a business still navigating a difficult housing market rather than accelerating through it. Online sales were a genuine bright spot, growing 15.5%, alongside continued strength in appliances, home services and Pro sales.

GAAP diluted EPS came in at $2.90, essentially flat with $2.92 a year ago, weighed down by $96 million in pre-tax acquisition-related expenses. Adjusted diluted EPS grew a more respectable 3.8% to $3.03. Net earnings were $1.6 billion. The company paid $674 million in dividends during the quarter but did not repurchase shares, directing capital instead toward integration of its recent acquisitions.

The full-year 2026 outlook was affirmed rather than raised, with total sales of $92 billion to $94 billion, comparable sales of flat to up 2%, and adjusted diluted EPS of $12.25 to $12.75. The absence of an upgrade, coming on a day when TJX raised guidance across every metric, likely amplified the negative market reaction.

CEO Marvin Ellison acknowledged the challenging housing macro while pointing to spring execution and Pro momentum as reasons for confidence. The 2.6% decline reflects a market that found the results adequate but not compelling — particularly on a day when the bar for retail outperformance was set conspicuously high by a direct peer.
Lowe’s launches spring promotions with free same-day delivery on mulch

March 25, 2026 — Lowe’s kicked off its spring home improvement season with a series of promotions, including free same-day delivery on mulch for loyalty program members on eligible orders over $25.

The retailer’s “SpringFest” campaign, running from March 26 to April 22, features discounts across key categories such as lawn and garden, outdoor equipment, appliances, and paint, alongside exclusive offers for MyLowe’s Rewards and Pro members.

Lowe’s said the initiative aims to support homeowners and professional contractors as demand rises for seasonal projects, combining savings, loyalty incentives, and expanded delivery options to enhance customer convenience.

The company also highlighted growing membership engagement, with its rewards program surpassing 30 million users nationwide.
PRNewswire
Lowe's Companies Inc. Launches HomeCare+ Subscription Service

Lowe's Companies Inc. introduced HomeCare+, a nationwide home maintenance subscription priced at $99 per year, aimed at simplifying routine household upkeep for its MyLowe’s Rewards members.

The service includes two annual in-home visits by Lowe’s associates, covering up to seven essential maintenance tasks per visit such as HVAC filter replacement, dryer vent cleaning, water heater flushing, and safety-related battery replacements. The program is designed to reduce the burden of routine home maintenance while leveraging Lowe’s in-store workforce for service delivery.

HomeCare+ also integrates into Lowe’s broader loyalty ecosystem, offering members additional benefits such as discounts on maintenance-related products and upgraded rewards status. The initiative reflects Lowe’s strategy to deepen customer engagement through recurring service-based offerings beyond traditional retail sales.
PRNewswire
Lowe's Companies, Inc. posts Q4 comparable sales growth, outlines 2026 outlook

Lowe’s reported fourth-quarter net earnings of $1.0 billion and diluted EPS of $1.78 for the period ended Jan. 30, 2026, compared with $1.99 a year earlier. Adjusted diluted EPS rose 2.6% year over year to $1.98, excluding $149 million in pre-tax acquisition-related expenses tied to Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group.

Quarterly sales increased to $20.6 billion from $18.6 billion in the prior-year period, while comparable sales rose 1.3%, driven by growth in Pro, online and home services, along with solid holiday demand. During the quarter, the company paid $673 million in dividends and returned $2.6 billion to shareholders for the full fiscal year.

For fiscal 2026, Lowe’s expects total sales of $92.0 billion to $94.0 billion, representing growth of approximately 7% to 9%, with comparable sales projected to be flat to up 2%. The company forecasts diluted EPS of $11.75 to $12.25 and capital expenditures of about $2.5 billion.

Source: PR Newswire
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW) announced that it will hold its Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call at 9 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, Feb. 25
Lowe's Companies Inc. announced enhancements to its Pro offering aimed at small- to medium-size contractors, expanding product access, digital tools and rewards benefits to simplify purchasing and day-to-day business management.

The company expanded its Pro Extended Aisle, giving builders access to job-lot quantities, real-time inventory and pricing, bulk quoting and direct-to-jobsite delivery through a growing supplier network.

Digital upgrades on Lowes*com and the Lowe’s app now allow Pros to build and submit quotes from the job site, track orders, access full purchase history, generate spend reports by job or client, use a “Buy It Again” reorder tool, authorize crew purchases and integrate with QuickBooks and Quicken. A digital wallet also supports multiple payment methods.

Through MyLowe’s Pro Rewards, members earn points on qualifying purchases redeemable for MyLowe’s Money and products, receive free shipping and can access 5% daily savings with the Pro Rewards Credit Card. Additional benefits include a 20% paint discount after qualifying annual spend. The program features tiered levels—Gold, Platinum and Titanium—structured to help smaller Pros reach status faster.

Lowe’s also strengthened industry partnerships, including its role as NAHB’s Exclusive Member Savings Program Home Improvement Retailer, offering linked members preferred pricing, bulk discounts and customized quotes.

The company said the combined enhancements are designed to help contractors source materials more efficiently, manage spending and keep projects on schedule.
Lowe's Companies, Inc. launched MyLowe’s Rewards Kids Club, expanding its long-running Kids Workshops into a more integrated family-focused platform. For the first time, parents can add children directly to their MyLowe’s Rewards profile, enabling digital tracking of workshop participation through badges, simplified registration for multiple kids, and access to free monthly, in-store DIY workshops supported by Lowe’s associates.

The Kids Club combines hands-on building activities with small in-store experiences designed to foster family connection and reduce screen time, responding to research showing strong parent interest in shared, screen-free activities. Registration for the program is now open, with the next nationwide workshop scheduled for February 21.

Source: Lowe’s Companies, Inc., February 5, 2026
Inter Miami CF and Lowe’s have renewed and expanded their partnership, elevating Lowe’s to a Main Partner of the club, Official Jersey Sleeve Partner across all teams, and a Founding Partner of Miami Freedom Park. The enhanced agreement builds on a collaboration that began in 2024 and coincides with Inter Miami’s preparation for the opening of its new stadium and entertainment district in 2026, following the club’s 2025 MLS Cup victory. Under the expanded partnership, Lowe’s will support construction and development across Miami Freedom Park, including the stadium and surrounding public spaces, while also strengthening its presence in player development, fan engagement, and community initiatives. Lowe’s will continue its role as presenting partner of the Dreams Cup, reinforcing its focus on youth development, and will maintain community events, on-site activations, and digital integrations tied to the club’s growing national profile.

Source: Lowe's Companies, Inc. press release via PRNewswire, January 16, 2026
Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW) Q3 2025: modest growth, higher adjusted EPS, outlook tweaked after FBM deal

Lowe’s Companies, Inc. reported third quarter 2025 net earnings of 1.6 billion dollars, with diluted EPS of 2.88 dollars, down from 2.99 dollars a year earlier due to 129 million dollars of pre-tax acquisition-related costs for Foundation Building Materials (FBM) and Artisan Design Group (ADG). Excluding these items, adjusted diluted EPS rose 5.9% to 3.06 dollars.

Total sales increased to 20.8 billion dollars from 20.2 billion dollars in the prior-year quarter, while comparable sales edged up 0.4%, supported by 11.4% online growth, double-digit gains in home services and continued growth in Pro customer sales. As of 31 October 2025, Lowe’s operated 1,756 stores, covering 195.8 million square feet of selling space.

The company deployed 8.8 billion dollars during the quarter to acquire FBM and paid 673 million dollars in dividends, reaffirming its focus on long-term shareholder returns.

For full-year 2025, Lowe’s now expects total sales of about 86.0 billion dollars and flat comparable sales versus 2024. The company guides to an adjusted operating margin of 12.1%, net interest expense of roughly 1.4 billion dollars, an effective tax rate of about 24.0%, and adjusted diluted EPS of approximately 12.25 dollars, with capital expenditures up to 2.5 billion dollars. The updated outlook incorporates FBM and reflects ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.
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NYSE:EL

Estée Lauder Stock Surges 18% as Strong FY2026 Recovery and Improved Margin Outlook Boost Sentiment

Estée Lauder (NYSE: EL) shares surged about 18% on Wednesday after the beauty company reported a significant improvement in fiscal 2026 performance and offered an encouraging fiscal 2027 outlook, including a higher adjusted operating margin forecast.

The sharp rally appears to reflect growing investor confidence that Estée Lauder’s turnaround is gaining traction, with sales growth returning, profitability improving substantially and management expecting further progress in fiscal 2027.

Sales Return to Growth as Profitability Improves

Estée Lauder reported fiscal 2026 net sales of $15.05 billion, up 5% from $14.33 billion a year earlier, while organic sales increased 3%. Fourth-quarter organic sales growth accelerated to 5%, marking the company’s fourth consecutive quarter of growth.

Profitability showed an even stronger recovery. Adjusted operating income increased 47% to $1.69 billion, while adjusted operating margin expanded to 11.2% from 8.0%. Adjusted EPS increased 66% to $2.51 from $1.51.

Gross margin also expanded 150 basis points to 75.5%, helped by benefits from the company’s Profit Recovery and Growth Plan, operational efficiencies and improved expense management.

Fiscal 2027 Margin Outlook Likely Drives the Rally

A key catalyst behind the 18% stock move is likely management’s fiscal 2027 outlook.

Estée Lauder maintained its expectation for organic sales growth of 3% to 5% but raised its adjusted operating margin forecast to 12.7%-13.5%, compared with its preliminary May outlook of 12.5%-13.0%.

The company expects continued growth in Fragrance and Skin Care and a return to growth in Makeup, while growth is expected to become more geographically diversified.

The margin outlook is particularly important because it suggests the turnaround is moving beyond simple revenue stabilization. Estée Lauder’s restructuring and cost initiatives are increasingly translating into operating leverage, with the company expecting approximately $1.2 billion of annual gross benefits from its Profit Recovery and Growth Plan.

Turnaround Gains Momentum

There are also signs that Estée Lauder is strengthening its competitive position. The company reported prestige beauty share gains in several important markets, including mainland China, Japan, Korea, the U.S. and Western Europe. Jo Malone London and TOM FORD also joined its group of billion-dollar brands during fiscal 2026.

The approximately 18% jump in EL shares therefore appears to reflect more than a single strong quarter. Investors are responding to evidence that Estée Lauder’s restructuring is improving margins while organic growth returns, combined with management’s increased confidence that profitability can expand further in fiscal 2027.
Estée Lauder Surges 6% as Earnings Show Margin Recovery and Growth Momentum

Shares of The Estée Lauder jumped 6% to $81.43 today, as investors responded positively to the company’s fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings, which highlighted improving margins, strong fragrance growth, and a raised full-year outlook.

The company reported net sales of $3.7 billion, up 5% year-over-year, with organic sales increasing 2%. Growth was supported by double-digit expansion in the fragrance segment and solid performance across most regions, particularly Mainland China, where the company gained market share.

While reported profitability was impacted by one-off factors, underlying performance showed a sharp improvement. Operating income declined 19% and operating margin fell to 6.7%, largely due to restructuring charges and a legal-related loss contingency. However, adjusted operating income surged 38%, with adjusted operating margin expanding significantly to 15.0%, reflecting strong execution and cost efficiencies.

Earnings followed a similar pattern. Reported EPS dropped 45% to $0.24, but adjusted EPS rose 40% to $0.91, indicating a meaningful turnaround in core profitability.

Margins were a key highlight. Gross margin expanded by 140 basis points to 76.4%, driven by benefits from the company’s Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP), improved sales leverage, and operational efficiencies that helped offset inflation and tariff pressures.

Cash flow generation also improved notably. For the first nine months of fiscal 2026, operating cash flow increased to $1.2 billion, while free cash flow rose sharply to $891 million, reflecting stronger earnings and disciplined capital spending.

CEO Stéphane de La Faverie emphasized that fiscal 2026 is shaping up to be a “pivotal year,” with the company restoring organic sales growth and expanding margins for the first time in four years. He also highlighted strong progress under the “Beauty Reimagined” strategy, which is driving both revenue growth and operational improvements.

Looking ahead, Estée Lauder raised its full-year fiscal 2026 outlook, expecting organic sales growth at the high end of its prior range and adjusted operating margin expansion approaching 300 basis points. The company also provided an initial view for fiscal 2027, projecting sales growth of 3% to 5% and further margin improvement.

Overall, the combination of accelerating adjusted earnings, margin expansion, and improved guidance appears to have boosted investor confidence, driving the sharp upward move in the stock.

5 stocks that crashed this week after reporting earnings and I hold ALL of them. Here’s what’s I’m doing. *Loser Alert* | Dr Wealth

I'm not immune to the sell-offs in the market and like any vested investor, nothing sucks more than waking up in the morning to see a stock I own go down by 20%. Unfortunately for me, I had to experience this at least 5 times this week as most of my holdings traded down significantly.

(drwealth.com)
Estée Lauder Companies filed an amended Form 8-K detailing new initiatives approved under its expanded Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP), a restructuring program launched in 2024 and broadened in early 2025. The company now estimates total restructuring and related charges of $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion before tax, with cumulative approved charges reaching $1.137 billion as of November 29, 2025.

Recent approvals focus on transforming global Enterprise Business Services, including consolidating service providers, expanding outsourcing, standardizing processes, and adopting advanced technology. These actions will lead to professional services costs, workforce reductions, and contract termination charges.

Of the cumulative $1.137 billion approved to date, $781 million relates to restructuring charges—including $674 million in employee-related costs—while $342 million reflects other charges. The company expects initiatives to be approved through fiscal 2026 and substantially completed by fiscal 2027.

Estée Lauder will continue providing disclosures as additional significant initiatives are approved.
The Estée Lauder Companies Reports Strong Start to Fiscal 2026, Returns to Growth and Profitability

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE: EL) reported fiscal 2026 first-quarter net sales of $3.48 billion, up 4% year over year, marking a return to organic growth under its “Beauty Reimagined” strategy. Organic net sales rose 3%, driven by strong performance across skincare, fragrance, and makeup brands. Operating income reached $169 million versus a loss of $121 million a year earlier, while adjusted operating income surged 77% to $255 million, representing a 7.3% margin. Diluted EPS improved to $0.13 from a loss of $0.43, and adjusted EPS rose to $0.32 from $0.14.

CEO Stéphane de La Faverie said the company is regaining momentum with operational efficiencies and cost discipline under its Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP). Gross margin expanded 100 basis points to 73.4%, supported by procurement savings, lower promotions, and reduced obsolescence. Cash flow use improved sharply, with $340 million used in operating activities versus $670 million last year, while capital expenditures fell to $96 million.

The company reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2026 outlook to restore positive sales growth and expand operating margins for the first time in four years.

Market and brand highlights included continued share gains in Mainland China led by La Mer, Le Labo, and TOM FORD; U.S. gains across The Ordinary, Estée Lauder, and M·A·C; and strong fragrance performance in Western Europe. Innovation launches featured new products from Estée Lauder, La Mer, TOM FORD, The Ordinary, and M·A·C, while digital expansion included new partnerships with Amazon, TikTok Shop, and Shopify to modernize global e-commerce. The company also opened a global Fragrance Atelier in Paris to accelerate prestige scent innovation and continued its social impact initiatives through Vital Voices and BEAUTY&YOU India.
Estée Lauder Updates Bylaws to Reflect Modern Governance Practices

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. amended and restated its bylaws. Key changes include new procedural requirements for shareholder proposals and director nominations, adoption of exclusive forum provisions for certain legal claims, clarification that indemnification for agents is optional, and updates aligning with Delaware law. The Board also removed the Executive Chairman role and established a Chair of the Board position. These updates aim to modernize governance and enhance clarity.
Adobe has announced a partnership with The Estée Lauder Companies to integrate Adobe Firefly, its generative AI platform, into the company's digital marketing workflows. This collaboration aims to accelerate content production and streamline the creation of marketing campaigns for brands such as Clinique, Estée Lauder, Jo Malone London, La Mer, and M·A·C Cosmetics.

With the growing demand for digital marketing assets, Estée Lauder is leveraging Adobe Firefly Services, a suite of generative AI tools that automate repetitive tasks such as resizing and reformatting content. This allows creative teams to focus on new design concepts while improving efficiency in launching campaigns. A recent survey indicates that marketers expect content demands to increase fivefold by 2026, making automation essential.

M·A·C Cosmetics was the first Estée Lauder brand to explore generative AI through Adobe Firefly, using it to overcome platform-specific content challenges and maintain a competitive digital presence. To further enhance workflow efficiency, Estée Lauder is also adopting Adobe Experience Manager Assets as a Cloud Service to modernize its digital asset management system, enabling faster uploads, improved search capabilities, and better content performance tracking.

This partnership aligns with Estée Lauder’s Beauty Reimagined strategy, which focuses on innovation, speed to market, and enhanced consumer engagement. Adobe's generative AI tools will help the company optimize operations, streamline creative production, and deliver high-quality digital marketing content across its global portfolio.
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. announced that its Board of Directors appointed Eric Zinterhofer to the Compensation Committee on February 25, 2025. Zinterhofer was previously elected as a Class II director on January 9, 2025. Additionally, the Board reduced its size to 14 members.

source: The Estée Lauder Companies Inc., February 25, 2025.
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. reported their fiscal 2025 second-quarter financial results and unveiled their new strategic vision, *Beauty Reimagined*. This vision focuses on restoring sustainable sales growth and improving profitability over the next few years. Key points include:

- **Strategic Vision**: The company aims to become the best consumer-centric prestige beauty company by accelerating consumer coverage, driving transformative innovation, boosting consumer-facing investments, and enhancing efficiency. A major initiative is expanding the *Profit Recovery and Growth Plan* to improve procurement, supply chain efficiencies, and outsourcing.

- **Financial Results**:
- Net sales decreased by 6%, totaling $4.0 billion. Organic net sales also dropped by 6%.
- Despite the sales decline, gross margin increased to 76.1%, benefiting from the Profit Recovery and Growth Plan.
- Operating income turned to a loss of $580 million from a profit of $574 million, mainly due to impairment charges and restructuring.
- Diluted net earnings per share fell to a loss of $1.64, compared to a gain of $0.87 last year. Adjusted diluted net earnings per share decreased by 29%.
- The effective tax rate improved to 9.2% from 37.6% in the prior-year period, though the adjusted effective tax rate increased to 42.6%.

- **Outlook and Actions**: The company is focusing on simplifying operations, reducing complexity, and improving decision-making speed to enhance execution, benefiting both large and smaller brands. They are also committed to significantly increasing consumer-facing investments, particularly in advertising and marketing.

Despite challenges, Estée Lauder is positioning itself for future growth, aiming for a solid double-digit adjusted operating margin in the coming years.
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COINBASE:BTCUSD

Trump expected to attend White House meeting with crypto CEOs, sources say

Those involved in a meeting of CEOs from the worlds of crypto, prediction markets and AI anticipate President Donald Trump will take part in next week's gathering.

(coindesk.com)

Live updates: Bitcoin holds $62,600 as the Iran conflict reignites and CPI looms

Trump reinstated the Hormuz blockade, sending oil higher and rate-hike bets up, reversing the peace trade that helped bitcoin recover in early July. Today's inflation print is the next test.

(coindesk.com)
Bitcoin (BTC) Falls 1.2% as Cautious Sentiment Keeps Price Below $60,000

Bitcoin (BTC) traded lower on Tuesday, extending its recent weakness as investors remained cautious despite improving sentiment across global equity markets.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $59,273.83, down 1.2% over the past 24 hours after failing to reclaim the key $60,000 level.

# Bitcoin Remains Under Pressure

The world's largest cryptocurrency briefly approached $60,000 but failed to sustain momentum, with sellers pushing prices lower as traders continued to assess the outlook for monetary policy and institutional demand.

Unlike U.S. equities, which benefited from easing geopolitical tensions following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, Bitcoin did not participate in the broader risk-on move and has remained under pressure in recent weeks.

# Macro Headwinds Continue to Weigh

Analysts point to several factors limiting Bitcoin's recovery, including uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest-rate outlook, persistent outflows from crypto investment products, and weaker overall demand for digital assets. Recent reports have also highlighted concerns over potential additional Bitcoin supply entering the market from large holders.

# What Investors Are Watching

Market participants continue to monitor:

* Federal Reserve policy expectations.
* Institutional demand for Bitcoin.
* ETF flows and broader crypto market sentiment.
* Key technical support around the $58,000–$60,000 range.

While long-term adoption trends remain intact, Bitcoin has struggled to regain upward momentum in 2026. Until macroeconomic conditions improve or institutional buying strengthens, the cryptocurrency is likely to remain sensitive to interest-rate expectations and shifts in investor risk appetite.
Bitcoin Holds Above $60,000 as Buyers Return After Sharp Selloff

Bitcoin (BTC) traded around *$60,360* on Saturday, gaining nearly 2% over the past 24 hours as the cryptocurrency rebounded from this week's sharp decline. The recovery comes after Bitcoin briefly slipped below the psychologically important $60,000 level, with buyers stepping in as market sentiment stabilized.

Why is Bitcoin rising?

The latest bounce appears to be driven by bargain hunting following several days of heavy selling that pushed Bitcoin to its lowest levels in months. The price chart shows buyers gradually regaining control, with BTC climbing steadily throughout the past 24 hours and holding above the $60,000 threshold.

While concerns over inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook continue to weigh on risk assets, Bitcoin has shown signs of stabilization after the recent wave of liquidations across the crypto market.

What investors should watch

Although the latest rebound has improved short-term sentiment, Bitcoin remains below the highs seen earlier this week, suggesting volatility could persist. Investors will likely monitor macroeconomic developments, institutional fund flows, and whether BTC can establish support above $60,000 before attempting another move higher.
Bitcoin fell about 2.5% on Friday, extending its recent decline as investors reacted to persistent U.S. inflation and renewed uncertainty surrounding U.S. cryptocurrency regulation.

Sentiment weakened after the CLARITY Act, a landmark bill aimed at establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, faced another delay in the U.S. Senate. The setback disappointed investors who had expected the legislation to provide greater regulatory certainty and support broader institutional participation in the crypto market.

Pressure also came from the latest U.S. inflation data. The Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, remained at 3.4% year-over-year in May, well above the Fed's 2% target, while headline PCE accelerated to 4.1% from 3.8% in April. The figures reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer, reducing the appeal of risk-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Despite the pullback investors will continue to monitor progress on U.S. crypto legislation alongside upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve commentary, which are expected to remain the key drivers of digital asset sentiment.
Bitcoin Extends Rally Above $66,500 as Risk Appetite Returns to Crypto Markets

Bitcoin climbed above $66,500 on Tuesday, gaining roughly 1.4% over the past 24 hours and more than 4.5% over the last five days, as investors continued to add exposure to digital assets amid improving market sentiment.

The world's largest cryptocurrency has recovered steadily from last week's weakness, benefiting from a broader rebound in risk assets and growing confidence that institutional demand remains strong. Bitcoin briefly pushed above $67,000 during the recent rally before consolidating near current levels.

The cryptocurrency's resilience comes despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and volatility across commodity markets. While oil prices have retreated as concerns about a broader Middle East conflict eased, Bitcoin has continued to attract buyers, suggesting investors are increasingly viewing the asset as a long-term growth opportunity rather than solely a speculative trade.

Institutional adoption remains a key pillar supporting the market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to provide traditional investors with easier access to the cryptocurrency, while corporate and institutional interest in digital assets has remained elevated. Expectations that monetary policy could become more accommodative over the coming quarters have also supported demand for higher-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Technical momentum has improved as Bitcoin reclaimed the $66,000 level and approached recent highs near $67,000. Market participants are now watching whether the cryptocurrency can establish a sustained move above that resistance zone, which could open the door for a retest of higher levels reached earlier this year.

Despite the recent gains, traders remain attentive to macroeconomic developments, central bank decisions, and geopolitical headlines that could influence risk appetite. For now, however, Bitcoin's steady advance suggests investor sentiment toward the cryptocurrency market remains constructive as the second half of 2026 begins.
Bitcoin Holds Steady Near $62,500 as Investors Await Fresh Catalysts

Bitcoin traded near $62,600 (Thursday, 06.11.2026) showing little movement as investors weighed the latest U.S. economic data and broader market conditions. The world's largest cryptocurrency was down just 0.01%, reflecting a period of consolidation after recent volatility across financial markets.

The muted price action came as traders digested mixed signals from the U.S. economy. Initial jobless claims rose above expectations, pointing to some softening in the labor market, while producer prices increased more than forecast, highlighting persistent inflation pressures. The combination has created uncertainty about the timing and pace of future Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions.

Bitcoin has increasingly traded alongside risk assets in recent years, making macroeconomic developments a key driver of sentiment. Expectations for lower interest rates generally support cryptocurrencies by improving liquidity conditions and increasing investor appetite for higher-risk assets.

Despite the lack of a strong directional move, Bitcoin remains closely watched by investors as institutional adoption continues to grow and digital assets become more integrated into mainstream financial markets. Market participants are now looking for fresh economic data, central bank signals, and developments in the cryptocurrency sector to determine the next major move.

For now, Bitcoin appears to be holding its ground, with traders waiting for a clearer catalyst before committing to a stronger bullish or bearish view.
**Bitcoin Surges Nearly 3% as Investors Embrace Risk Following Softer Core Inflation Data**

Bitcoin climbed nearly 3% on Wednesday, rising to around $62,760 and reaching its highest level of the session as investors responded positively to the latest US inflation data and renewed appetite for risk assets.

The world's largest cryptocurrency gained momentum after the May Consumer Price Index report showed underlying inflation pressures easing more than expected. While headline inflation remained elevated at 4.2% year-over-year, Core CPI rose just 0.2% during the month, below economists' forecasts. The softer core reading strengthened hopes that the Federal Reserve may eventually gain room to ease monetary policy, a development that is generally supportive for cryptocurrencies and other risk-sensitive assets.

Bitcoin's rally also came despite weakness in US equity markets, where major indexes traded lower as investors weighed the broader inflation outlook and rising energy prices. The divergence suggests that cryptocurrency traders are focusing more on the prospect of future monetary easing than on short-term stock market volatility.

With inflation showing tentative signs of moderation and expectations for future interest-rate cuts remaining intact, the macroeconomic environment remains broadly supportive for digital assets. However, investors should also expect continued volatility as markets react to upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve commentary.
Bitcoin Slides 14% in Five Days as Capital Shifts Toward New Tech Opportunities and Higher Rates

Bitcoin has fallen roughly 14% over the past five days, extending a difficult period for the cryptocurrency market as investors navigate rising interest rates, shifting liquidity conditions and growing competition for capital from the technology sector.

The decline comes after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data reinforced expectations that interest rates could remain elevated for longer. Higher Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar have reduced the appeal of speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies, as investors seek safer alternatives with increasingly attractive yields.

At the same time, capital markets have been increasingly focused on a new wave of technology fundraising activity and anticipated initial public offerings. Investor attention has shifted toward artificial intelligence, space technology, robotics and advanced semiconductor companies, sectors that have attracted enormous amounts of capital over the past year. Market speculation surrounding potential blockbuster listings, including a possible future SpaceX IPO and other high-profile private technology companies, has contributed to a rotation of risk capital away from cryptocurrencies and toward equity opportunities that many investors view as offering more tangible growth prospects.

The technology sector has also become the primary destination for global investment flows as governments, corporations and institutional investors pour hundreds of billions of dollars into AI infrastructure, data centers and next-generation computing platforms. As a result, cryptocurrencies are increasingly competing with rapidly growing technology companies for the same pool of speculative and growth-oriented capital.

Another factor weighing on Bitcoin has been broader risk aversion across financial markets. Recent volatility in U.S. equities, uncertainty surrounding global growth, and concerns about inflation have encouraged investors to reduce exposure to higher-risk assets.

While the recent selloff has been severe, many analysts note that Bitcoin remains one of the most volatile major asset classes. In the near term, market direction will likely depend on Federal Reserve policy expectations, liquidity conditions and whether investors continue to favor technology and AI-related investments over digital assets. For now, the flow of capital appears to be moving toward traditional equity markets and emerging technology opportunities, creating additional pressure on cryptocurrency prices.
Bitcoin Slides as Risk Appetite Weakens Following Tech Selloff and Rising Market Uncertainty

Bitcoin fell nearly 4% today, dropping to around $64,300 and extending a volatile week for the cryptocurrency market. The decline comes as investors reduce exposure to risk assets amid a broad selloff in technology stocks, concerns about global growth, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

One of the biggest catalysts behind today's weakness was the sharp post-earnings decline in Broadcom. Shares of the AI chip giant plunged more than 13% after investors reacted negatively to its outlook despite another strong quarter. The selloff spread across the semiconductor sector, dragging down Nvidia, AMD, Marvell and other technology names that have been at the center of the artificial intelligence investment boom. As enthusiasm surrounding AI stocks cools, speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies are also coming under pressure.

Bitcoin has increasingly traded like a high-beta technology asset during periods of market stress. When investors become more cautious and move away from growth stocks, cryptocurrencies often experience even larger swings. Today's decline reflects that dynamic as capital rotates toward safer assets such as gold, which gained more than 1% during the session.

The macroeconomic backdrop has also become more challenging. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 225,000, above expectations, adding to concerns that economic momentum may be slowing. Additional pressure has come from continued outflows from crypto investment products and concerns about large-holder selling activity.

Despite today's weakness, some analysts remain constructive on Bitcoin's longer-term outlook. Institutional adoption, expanding crypto infrastructure and a potentially more favorable regulatory environment could support prices over time. However, in the near term, Bitcoin appears highly sensitive to movements in technology stocks, interest-rate expectations and overall investor risk appetite. As long as uncertainty remains elevated, volatility is likely to remain a defining feature of the cryptocurrency market.
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NYSE:TJX

TJX Stock Slips 0.8% Despite Q2 Earnings Beat and Higher Full-Year Guidance

TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) shares fell about 0.8% on Wednesday after the off-price retailer reported stronger-than-planned fiscal second-quarter 2027 results and raised its full-year profit outlook.

The decline comes despite solid headline numbers, suggesting investors may be focusing on softer performance at the company’s core Marmaxx business and relatively cautious third-quarter comparable-sales guidance.

Q2 Sales Rise 5% as Earnings Outpace Expectations

TJX reported second-quarter net sales of $15.2 billion, up 5% from $14.4 billion a year earlier. Consolidated comparable sales increased 4%, above the company’s plan.

Diluted EPS climbed 24% year over year to $1.36. Excluding a $0.14 net benefit related to tariff refunds, adjusted EPS was $1.22, representing an 11% increase from the prior year. Net income reached $1.5 billion.

Profitability also improved. Adjusted pretax margin increased 50 basis points to 11.9%, while adjusted gross margin rose 70 basis points to 31.4%, helped by stronger merchandise margins.

Marmaxx Growth Lags Other TJX Businesses

One potential reason for the negative stock reaction is the performance of Marmaxx, TJX’s largest U.S. division, which includes TJ Maxx, Marshalls and Sierra.

Marmaxx comparable sales increased just 1%, compared with 3% a year earlier and below management’s expectations. By comparison, HomeGoods delivered 7% comparable-sales growth, while TJX Canada and TJX International grew 6% and 7%, respectively.

CEO Ernie Herrman acknowledged the weaker Marmaxx performance but said the division was showing improvement early in the third quarter.

TJX Raises FY27 Earnings Outlook

TJX raised its full-year adjusted pretax margin forecast to 12.0%-12.1% and increased its adjusted EPS outlook to $5.15-$5.20. The company continues to expect full-year comparable sales growth of 3%-4%.

However, TJX expects third-quarter comparable sales to increase only 2%-3%, representing a slowdown from Q2’s 4% growth. Adjusted EPS is projected at $1.30-$1.32.

That comparatively cautious near-term sales outlook, combined with weaker-than-expected Marmaxx performance, may be outweighing the earnings beat and higher full-year profit guidance in Wednesday’s trading.

TJX nevertheless remains positioned for longer-term expansion. The retailer plans to accelerate annual store growth to 4% beginning in fiscal 2028 and increased its long-term global store target from 7,000 to 7,500 locations.
TJX Surges 4.7% as Off-Price Model Delivers Standout Quarter Across Every Metric

TJX Companies jumped 4.7% today after the off-price retail giant delivered a first quarter that beat its own guidance on every key measure and raised its full-year outlook, reinforcing its position as one of the most resilient business models in consumer retail.

Net sales for Q1 fiscal 2027 reached $14.3 billion, up 9% year over year. Consolidated comparable sales grew 6%, well above plan, with strength across every division — Marmaxx up 6%, HomeGoods up 9%, TJX Canada up 7% and TJX International up 4%. CEO Ernie Herrman highlighted that all divisions delivered increases in customer transactions, a particularly meaningful signal in a consumer environment marked by value-seeking behavior.

Pretax profit margin expanded a striking 170 basis points to 12.0%, driven by higher merchandise margins, favorable inventory and fuel hedges and expense leverage on above-plan sales. Gross margin improved 180 basis points to 31.3%. Diluted EPS came in at $1.19, up 29% from $0.92 a year ago and well above guidance. The company generated $1.1 billion in operating cash flow and ended the quarter with $5.6 billion in cash, returning the full $1.1 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends.

For the full year, TJX raised comparable sales growth guidance to 3% to 4%, pretax profit margin to 11.9% to 12.0% and diluted EPS to $5.08 to $5.15. The share repurchase range was lifted to $2.75 to $3.0 billion. The company noted it is not flowing through the full Q1 outperformance to the full-year outlook, prudently assuming higher fuel costs for the remainder of the year.

The 4.7% gain reflects a market that sees TJX's off-price model as uniquely well-positioned for the current environment — when consumers trade down due to economic uncertainty, they trade into TJX, and outstanding branded merchandise availability in a disrupted supply chain only adds to the advantage.
The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX) today announced the declaration of a quarterly dividend on its common stock of $.425 per share payable September 4, 2025, to shareholders of record on August 14, 2025.
TJX Companies Reports Q1 FY26 Results: Beats Earnings Plan, Maintains Full-Year Guidance

The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX), the leading global off-price apparel and home fashions retailer, reported solid first quarter results for fiscal year 2026, driven by broad-based sales growth and strong customer traffic.

Key Q1 Highlights:
• Net sales: $13.1 billion, up 5% year-over-year
• Consolidated comparable sales: +3%, at the high end of TJX’s expectations
• Diluted EPS: $0.92, above company plan, compared to $0.93 in Q1 FY25
• Pretax profit margin: 10.3%, ahead of plan but down from 11.1% a year ago
• Net income: $1.0 billion
• Operating cash flow: $394 million
• Shareholder returns: $1.0 billion returned via $613 million in stock repurchases and $420 million in dividends

CEO Commentary:
CEO Ernie Herrman praised the strong quarter, noting comp sales growth across all geographies and divisions. He emphasized confidence in TJX’s off-price model and the company’s ability to gain market share globally. Herrman highlighted robust customer response, especially to value-oriented fashion and brand assortments, and said the second quarter was off to a “strong start.”
Sales Performance by Division (Comparable Sales YoY):
• Marmaxx (U.S.): +2%
• HomeGoods (U.S.): +4%
• TJX Canada: +5%
• TJX International (Europe & Australia): +5%

Sales Performance by Division (Net Sales):
• Marmaxx: $8.05 billion (+4%)
• HomeGoods: $2.25 billion (+8%)
• TJX Canada: $1.14 billion (+3%, +7% constant currency)
• TJX International: $1.66 billion (+8%, +7% constant currency)

Margins and Inventory:
• Gross margin fell 0.5 pts to 29.5%, primarily due to negative inventory hedge adjustments.
• SG&A increased to 19.4% of sales, slightly up from 19.2% last year.
• Inventory grew to $7.1 billion, up from $6.2 billion YoY, as TJX leveraged market availability to stock stores for spring/summer.

Outlook:
• Q2 FY26:
o Comp sales growth: +2% to +3%
o EPS: $0.97 to $1.00 (up 1%–4% YoY)
o Pretax profit margin: 10.4% to 10.5% (down from 10.9% YoY)
• Full-Year FY26:
o Comp sales growth: +2% to +3%
o EPS: $4.34 to $4.43 (up 2%–4% YoY)
o Pretax profit margin: 11.3% to 11.4% (vs. 11.5% in FY25)

Store Count:
TJX operated 5,121 stores as of May 3, 2025, with a 0.6% increase in square footage from the prior quarter. Growth included additions across the U.S., Canada, and Europe.
Balance Sheet Snapshot (as of May 3, 2025):
• Cash & equivalents: $4.26 billion
• Total assets: $31.9 billion
• Shareholders’ equity: $8.5 billion
• Long-term debt: $2.87 billion

TJX reaffirmed its commitment to stock repurchases, with $2.9 billion still authorized under its current buyback plan.
TJX Companies Updates Credit Facilities, Maintains $1.5 Billion Capacity

The TJX Companies, Inc. amended and restated two revolving credit facilities. The $500 million facility was extended to May 2029 and increased to $750 million. The $1 billion facility was extended to May 2030 but reduced to $750 million, with a lower interest rate margin aligned with the first facility. Despite these changes, total borrowing capacity remains at $1.5 billion. All other material terms remain unchanged.
The TJX Companies, Inc. reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, with sales and earnings exceeding expectations. Comparable store sales increased by 5% in Q4 and 4% for the full year, driven by higher customer transactions. Net sales for the fiscal year reached $56.4 billion, reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase. The company’s pretax profit margin was 11.6% for Q4 and 11.5% for the full year, benefiting from lower inventory shrink expenses.

Diluted earnings per share were $1.23 for Q4 and $4.26 for the full year, representing a 10% and 13% increase, respectively, compared to adjusted results from the previous year. TJX returned $4.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in FY25 and plans to repurchase $2.0 to $2.5 billion in stock in FY26. The company also expects to increase its dividend by 13%.

CEO Ernie Herrman highlighted the company’s strong performance, surpassing $56 billion in annual sales, achieving consistent sales growth across all divisions, and opening its 5,000th store. He attributed success to the company's off-price model, which continues to attract customers with brand-name merchandise at value prices. Looking ahead, TJX remains confident in its long-term growth opportunities and its ability to deliver value to consumers worldwide.
The TJX Companies, Inc. has extended the employment agreements of CEO and President Ernie Herrman and Executive Chairman Carol Meyrowitz until January 29, 2028. Under the new terms, Meyrowitz will receive a minimum annual base salary of $1.1 million starting February 2, 2025. Additionally, Executive Advisor Scott Goldenberg’s contract has been extended through April 24, 2026.
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