US #US Price, Chart, News & Insight

US Tariffs: What’s the Impact? | J.P. Morgan Research

The situation surrounding U.S. tariffs is constantly evolving. Read the latest analysis of their economic impact from J.P. Morgan Research.

Consumer Spending: Thoughts on the Market | Morgan Stanley

Listen to our financial podcast with Arunima Sinha, Heather Berger and James Egan to discuss all the factors that have impacted waning consumer confidence.

Crude Oil Inventories 6.165M Forecast -0.200M
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 2.373M Previous -0.755M

Nonfarm Employment Change 155K Forecast 118K
Factory Orders (MoM) 0.6% Forecast 0.5%

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.2 Forecast 49.8

ISM Manufacturing Prices 69.4 Forecast 64.6

JOLTS Job Openings 7.568M Forecast 7.690M

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) -3.7% Forecast -2.8%

Navigating Washington's Risks: Mar-a-Lago Accord, Tariffs and Municipal Tax Exemption | J.P. Morgan

Political uncertainty has reached rare heights, with tariffs, munis’ tax status and the value of the dollar the primary risks.

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Corporate Credit: Thoughts on the Market | Morgan Stanley

Listen to our financial podcast with Andrew Sheets, who discusses why credit markets could weaken in the face of macro uncertainty.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) -2.8% Forecast -1.8%

Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 5.0% Forecast 4.9%

Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 2.8% Forecast 2.7% Previous 2.7%
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.4% Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.3%

What Is the Social Security Fairness Act? | J.P. Morgan

On January 5, 2025, former President Biden signed into law the "Social Security Fairness Act.” Read about how this might impact Social Security benefits.

Economics: Thoughts on the Market | Morgan Stanley

Listen to our financial podcast with Seth Carpenter and Rajeev Sibal, who explain how shifting U.S. tariff policy could transform global trade.

Continuing Jobless Claims 1,856K Forecast 1,890K
Initial Jobless Claims 224K Forecast 225K

Core PCE Prices (Q4) 2.60% Forecast 2.70%
GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2.4% Forecast 2.3%
GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 2.3% Forecast 2.4%

Goods Trade Balance (Feb) -147.91B Forecast -134.60B

Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Feb) 0.1% Previous 0.5%
Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) 2.0% Forecast 0.9%

5-Year Note Auction 4.100% Previous 4.123%

Crude Oil Inventories -3.341M Forecast 1.500M

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) 0.7% Forecast 0.2%
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) 0.9% Forecast -1.1%
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) -1.8% Forecast -1.8%

Warning: The U.S. is already in a private-sector recession – Danielle DiMartino Booth | Kitco News

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.

Building Permits 1.459M Forecast 1.456M
S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) 0.1% Forecast 0.2%
S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 4.7% Forecast 4.6%
CB Consumer Confidence 92.9 Forecast 94.2
New Home Sales (MoM) 1.8% Previous -6.9%
New Home Sales - Feb 676K Forecast 682K

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 49.8 Forecast 51.9
S&P Global Composite PMI (Mar) 53.5 Previous 51.6
S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) 54.3 Forecast 51.2

What to Consider When You’re Considering Alternative Investments | J.P. Morgan

Prioritizing due diligence and manager selection can be key to building an allocation to alternatives that enhances your portfolio’s diversification and outperformance potential.

Continuing Jobless Claims 1,892K Forecast 1,890K
Current Account (Q4) -303.9B Forecast -330.0B
Initial Jobless Claims 223K Forecast 224K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) 12.5 Forecast 8.8
Philly Fed Employment (Mar) 19.7 Previous 5.3
Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) 4.2% Previous -4.7%
Existing Home Sales (Feb) 4.26M Forecast 3.95M
US Leading Index (MoM) (Feb) -0.3% Forecast -0.2%

Industrial Production (M) 0.7% Forecast 0.2%
Industrial Production (Y) 1.44% Previous 1.92%

Building Permits (Feb) 1.456M Forecast 1.450M
Export Price Index (MoM) 0.1% Forecast -0.2%
Housing Starts (MoM) 11.2% Previous -11.5%
Housing Starts 1.501M Forecast 1.380M
Import Price Index (MoM) 0.4% Forecast -0.1%

American Express has released delinquency and write-off statistics for its U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business Card Member lending portfolios for February, January, and December 2024. As of February 28, 2025, total U.S. Consumer Card Member loans stood at $87.8 billion, with a delinquency rate of 1.4% and a net write-off rate of 2.5%. U.S. Small Business Card Member loans totaled $30.2 billion, with a delinquency rate of 1.6% and a net write-off rate of 2.6%.

The report also provides credit performance data for the American Express Credit Account Master Trust. As of February 28, 2025, the trust’s total principal balance was $24.7 billion, with an annualized default rate of 1.8%, up from 1.2% in December 2024.

The company noted that these figures exclude loans related to its Lowe’s small business co-brand portfolio, which were reclassified as held for sale in December 2024. American Express highlighted that reported credit performance may vary due to seasonality, timing of holidays, and differences in loan characteristics between securitized and non-securitized portfolios.

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% Forecast 0.3%
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar) -20.00 Forecast -1.90
Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.2% Forecast 0.6%
Business Inventories (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% Forecast 0.3%
Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jan) 0.5% Forecast 0.4%

Fifty Days of Grey | J.P. Morgan Private Bank U.S.

Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded.

Continuing Jobless Claims 1,870K Forecast 1,900K
Core PPI (MoM) (Feb) -0.1% Forecast 0.3%
Initial Jobless Claims 220K Forecast 226K
PPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.0% Forecast 0.3%

Trump Tariffs 2025: A Guide for Investors | Morgan Stanley

Learn how the Trump administration’s tariffs are reshaping financial markets and how investors can navigate the risks and opportunities for their portfolio.

Crude Oil Inventories 1.448M 2.100M 3.614M
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -1.228M 1.124M

Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.2% Forecast 0.3%
Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) 3.1% Forecast 3.2%
CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.2% Forecast 0.3%
CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.8% Forecast 2.9%

US Economic Insights: An Early Look at the Trump Economy

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A PODCAST FROM DEUTSCHE BANK

JOLTS Job Openings (Jan) 7.740M Forecast 7.650M

February 2025 Jobs Report: Economy Adds 151K Jobs | J.P. Morgan

The February 2025 jobs report was slightly weaker than expected and the unemployment rate ticked up. How might the Fed react and what does the data mean for investors?

NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.1% Prev 3.0%

Morgan Stanley cuts US growth forecast for 2025 on tariff concerns

"Earlier and broader tariffs should translate into softer growth this year, whereas we previously assumed it would weigh on growth mainly in 2026," said Morgan Stanley economists led by Michael T Gapen. The Wall Street brokerage lowered its Q4/Q4 2025 growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.9% earlier. It also lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.3%.

UBS Research analyzed the potential impact of President Trump's proposed reciprocal tariffs, which would impose tariffs on imported goods at the same rate that other countries apply to U.S. exports. While the concept of reciprocity exists in trade agreements, it has not typically been applied at the individual product level.

The study examined tariffs across 12,500 product lines and 200 trade partners, finding that reciprocal tariffs would increase the U.S. weighted average import tariff by 1.65 percentage points, with developed markets seeing a smaller impact of 0.8 percentage points and emerging markets a larger one of 2.2 percentage points. The countries most affected would be India, Argentina, Indonesia, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Turkey, with Vietnam and Thailand facing the highest GDP risk due to their trade exposure to the U.S.

From a global perspective, reciprocal tariffs would be significantly less damaging than a blanket global tariff. A hypothetical 10 percent blanket U.S. tariff could lower global GDP by one percentage point, while reciprocal tariffs would have only about one-fifth of that impact.

The analysis found no clear evidence that the U.S. is uniquely disadvantaged by current tariff structures. While U.S. agricultural exports face higher foreign tariffs, about five percentage points higher than U.S. import tariffs on agricultural goods, the U.S. also protects textiles disproportionately, with a four percentage point advantage in its own favor.

UBS estimates that reciprocal tariffs would generate between 18 and 32 billion dollars in annual revenue, equivalent to 0.1 percent of U.S. GDP. Given the modest revenue impact and complex cost-benefit considerations, the study suggests that the U.S. might ultimately pursue a different combination of tariffs, as Trump has hinted at further tariff actions beyond reciprocity.

The findings indicate that reciprocal tariffs would primarily affect emerging markets, raise limited revenue, and might not be the most effective trade strategy.

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 486 Previous 486
U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 592 Previous 593

Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) 151K Forecast 159K
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% Forecast 0.3%
Unemployment Rate (Feb) 4.1% Forecast 4.0%

Continuing Jobless Claims 1,897K Forecast 1,880K
Exports (Jan) 269.80B Previous 266.50B
Imports (Jan) 401.20B Previous 364.90B
Initial Jobless Claims 221K Forecast 234K
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) 1.5% Forecast 1.2%
Trade Balance (Jan) -131.40B Forecastt -128.30B

Crude Oil Inventories 3.614M Forecast 0.600M
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 1.124M Previous 1.282M

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) 77K Forecast 1 42K
S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb) 51.6 Forecast 50.4
S&P Global Services PMI (Feb) 51.0 Forecast 49.7
Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) 1.7% Forecast 1.7%
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Feb) 53.9 Previous 52.3
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 53.5 Forecast 52.5
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Feb) 62.6 Forecast 60.0

S&P Global Market Intelligence reported that corporate clean energy purchases in the US have surged to nearly 120 GW, driven by the growing energy demands of AI datacenters. Over the past year, corporations contracted an additional 48 GW of clean energy capacity, with the technology and web services sector accounting for 92% of the new additions.

Nuclear energy played a significant role, making up 43% of the 47.6-GW year-over-year increase. Corporate buyers also secured nearly 14 GW of solar capacity, compared to just 2.2 GW of wind capacity. Texas remained the leading state in corporate-tied clean energy capacity, while Missouri, Pennsylvania, and North Dakota saw the largest annual increases.

Tech companies led the shift toward nuclear power, aiming to support their clean energy commitments. Microsoft and Brookfield Renewable announced a historic 10.5-GW renewable deal in May 2024, while Switch partnered with nuclear startup Oklo for 12 GW of nuclear energy. In total, over 20 GW of nuclear deals were announced in 2024, though most of this capacity is expected to come online after 2030.

Despite the rise in nuclear investments, solar remains the preferred choice for corporate clean energy procurement, accounting for 49.1% of tracked capacity, with wind representing 23.9%.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 2.8% Forecast -1.5%

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 52.7 Forecast 51.6
Construction Spending (MoM) (Jan) -0.2% Forecast -0.1%
ISM Manufacturing Employment (Feb) 47.6 Previous 50.3
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 50.3 Forecast 50.6
ISM Manufacturing Prices (Feb) 62.4 Forecast 56.2

U.S. Public Policy: Thoughts on the Market | Morgan Stanley

Listen to our financial podcast with Michael Zezas, who discuss the conflicting news on tariffs and government spending and how investors should strategize around the uncertainty.

Is US Exceptionalism Here to Stay? | J.P. Morgan Research

Could recent developments including tariffs and the rise of DeepSeek undermine the outperformance of the U.S. economy and markets?

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 486 Previous 488
U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 593 Previous 592

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) -1.5% Forecast 2.3%

Chicago PMI (Feb) 45.5 Forecast 40.5

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% Forecast 0.3%
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan) 2.6% Forecast 2.6%
Goods Trade Balance (Jan) -153.26B Forecast -116.90B
PCE Price index (YoY) (Jan) 2.5% Forecast 2.5%
PCE price index (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% Forecast 0.3%
Personal Spending (MoM) (Jan) -0.2% Forecast 0.2%
Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jan) 0.4% Previous -0.1%

How Will the Second Trump Administration Impact CRE?

We highlight four important ways the new presidential administration could affect commercial real estate, including potential tax and regulatory changes.

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan) -4.6% Forecast -0.9%

Continuing Jobless Claims 1,862K Forecast 1,870K
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan) 0.0% Forecast 0.2%
Core PCE Prices (Q4) 2.70% Forecast 2.50%
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan) 3.1% Forecast 2.0%
GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2.3% Forecast 2.3%
GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 2.4% Forecast 2.2%
Initial Jobless Claims 242K Forecast 222K

US Crude Oil Inventories -2.332M Forecast 2.500M
US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 1.282M Previous 1.472M

Building Permits (Jan) 1.473M Forecast 1.483M
New Home Sales (Jan) 657K Forecast 679K
New Home Sales (MoM) (Jan) -10.5% Previous 8.1%

CB Consumer Confidence (Feb) 98.3 Forecast 102.7

Reciprocal Tariffs Downside Risks | Thoughts on the Market | Morgan Stanley

Listen to our financial podcast with Seth Carpenter, who explains the downside risks to the Trump administrations reciprocal tariffs.

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 51.6 Forecast 51.3
S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb) 50.4 Previous 52.7
S&P Global Services PMI (Feb) 49.7 Forecast 53.0
Existing Home Sales (Jan) 4.08M Forecast 4.13M
Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Feb) 4.3% Forecast 4.3%
Michigan Consumer Expectations (Feb) 64.0 Forecast 67.3
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb) 64.7 Forecast 67.8

30-Year TIPS Auction 2.403% Previous 2.055%

Crude Oil Inventories 4.633M Forecast 3.200M
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 1.472M Previous 0.872M

Continuing Jobless Claims 1,869K Forecast 1,870K
Initial Jobless Claims 219K Forecast 215K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) 18.1 Forecast 19.4
Philly Fed Employment (Feb) 5.3 Previous 11.9

20-Year Bond Auction 4.830% Previous 4.900%

Building Permits (Jan) 1.483M Forecast 1.460M
Housing Starts (MoM) (Jan) -9.8% Previous 16.1%
Housing Starts (Jan) 1.366M Forecast 1.390M
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 2.3% Forecast 2.3%

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb) 5.70 Forecast -1.90

New York's manufacturing sector experienced a modest uptick, with the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index rising to 5.7 from January's -12.6, surpassing the anticipated -1.9. This growth was driven by increases in new orders and shipments, while employment levels saw a slight decline. Notably, input prices escalated at the fastest rate in nearly two years, indicating mounting inflationary pressures. Despite the current improvement, business optimism for the next six months has diminished significantly, reflecting concerns over future conditions

Here is the economic data and forecasts for key labor and productivity indicators:

Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,886K (Forecast: 1,870K)
Initial Jobless Claims: 219K (Forecast: 214K)
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4): 1.2% (Forecast: 1.5%)
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4): 3.0% (Forecast: 3.4%)
Ivey PMI (Jan): 47.1 (Forecast: 53.0)
These figures indicate that jobless claims were slightly higher than expected, productivity growth was lower than forecasted, and labor costs increased at a slower pace than anticipated. Additionally, the Ivey PMI came in significantly below expectations, signaling potential economic contraction in purchasing activity.

Evaluation of Macroeconomic Data
The recently released data on the U.S. economy provide crucial signals for markets and investors. Here’s an overall assessment of the key indicators:
Employment and Labor Market Data
• ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan): 183K (Forecast: 148K)
Exceeding expectations indicates that the labor market remains strong and labor demand is sustained.
This could delay expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut.
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index (Jan): 52.3 (Previous: 51.3)
Employment growth in the services sector continues.
This suggests expansion in the labor market, supporting consumer spending.
Economic Activity and Growth Indicators
• S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan): 52.7 (Forecast: 52.4)
• S&P Global Services PMI (Jan): 52.9 (Forecast: 52.8)
These figures indicate that the economy is still in expansion mode.
The strength in the services sector suggests that the U.S. economy is not heading into a recession and that domestic demand remains robust.
• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan): 52.8 (Forecast: 54.2)
Coming in below expectations suggests that growth in the services sector has lost some momentum.
However, staying above the 50 threshold still signals expansion.
Inflation and Price Dynamics
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Index (Jan): 60.4 (Previous: 64.4)
A slowdown in price increases is observed.
This could indicate progress in the Fed’s inflation control efforts.
Trade Balance and Growth Forecasts
• U.S. Trade Balance (Dec): -98.4B (Forecast: -96.5B)
The widening trade deficit indicates strong import demand and a resilient domestic economy.
However, a larger deficit may be a negative signal for GDP growth.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) Growth Estimate: 2.9% (Previous Estimate: 3.9%)
The downward revision suggests softer growth expectations.
This could increase market expectations for rate cuts.
Implications for Markets and Fed Policy
Positive Indicators:
• A strong labor market
• PMI data remaining in expansion territory
• Continued employment growth in the services sector
Negative Indicators:
• Services PMI falling short of expectations
• A widening trade deficit
• Atlanta Fed's downward revision of growth forecasts
Implications for Fed’s Rate Policy:
• With a strong labor market and still-high services prices, the Fed may not rush into rate cuts.
• However, signs of slowing inflation and a downward revision in growth expectations could open the door for rate cuts in the second half of the year.
In conclusion, the data suggest that economic expansion continues, though at a slower pace. This situation reduces the likelihood of a Fed rate cut before June but leaves a more open window for cuts in the second half of the year.

Continuing Jobless Claims 1,886K FORECAST 1,870K
Initial Jobless Claims 219K FORECAST 214K
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) 1.2% FORECAST 1.5%
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4) 3.0% FORECAST 3.4%
Ivey PMI (Jan) 47.1 FORECAST 53.0

Crude Oil Inventories 8.664M FORECAST 2.400M
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.034M PREV 0.326M

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) 183K FORECAST 148K
Trade Balance (Dec) -98.40B FORECAST -96.50B
S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan) 52.7 FORECAST 52.4
S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) 52.9 FORECAST 52.8
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jan) 52.3 PREVIOUS 51.3
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 52.8 FORECAST 54.2
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jan) 60.4 PREVIOUS 64.4
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 2.9% FORECAST 3.9%

JOLTS Job Openings (Dec) 7.600M Forecast 8.010M
Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec) -0.9% Forecast -0.7%

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 51.2 FORECAST 50.1
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 50.9 FORECAST 49.3
ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jan) 54.9 FORECAST 52.6
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 3.9% FORECAST 2.9%

Trump's Tariff Policy Leaves Markets Uncertain. Investors Should Focus on the Long Term | J.P. Morgan

Trump announced 25% tariffs on most goods imported from Mexico and Canada and a 10% additional tariff on all goods from China, scheduled to take effect on February 4.

Here’s a summary of today’s key insights from Goldman Sachs Briefings:

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon is optimistic about the business environment and expects capital markets activity to return to 10-year averages in 2025. He attributes this to regulatory changes and a more collaborative investment landscape.

China's AI development is expected to boost AI adoption globally by lowering costs and increasing accessibility. Some Chinese AI models are reportedly cheaper to build, prompting US AI-related stocks to drop by 10% earlier this week.

Investor sentiment is shifting in 2025. Gold is increasingly favored, with 32% of surveyed investors calling it the best investment choice, up from 5% last year. India remains the top emerging market investment destination due to its manufacturing expansion and 6.5% expected economic growth through 2030. The "S&P 493" (excluding the Magnificent 7) is expected to outperform the broader S&P 500.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management sees India’s private equity and capital markets growing but warns of high valuations. Private credit demand is expected to rise due to M&A financing needs.

US stocks remain attractive, with Goldman Sachs' Investment Strategy Group (ISG) maintaining an overweight position. They expect an 8% return for the S&P 500 in 2025 but anticipate slower outperformance versus non-US stocks over the next five years.

Despite strong gains in gold and bitcoin in 2024, ISG does not view them as strategic portfolio assets, citing volatility and lack of cash flow generation.

Nuclear energy is gaining attention due to rising power demand from AI data centers.

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% Forecast 0.2%
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Dec) 2.8% Forecast 2.8%
Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q4) Forecast 0.9%
PCE Price index (YoY) (Dec) 2.6% Forecast 2.6%
PCE price index (MoM) (Dec) 0.3% Forecast 0.3%
Personal Spending (MoM) (Dec) 0.7% Forecast 0.5%
Chicago PMI (Jan) 39.5 Forecast 40.3
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 2.9%

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 479 Prev 472
U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 582 Prev 576

Natural Gas Storage -321B Previous -317B

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec) -5.5% Forecast 0.0%

Continuing Jobless Claims 1,858K FORECAST 1,890K
Core PCE Prices (Q4) 2.50% FORECAST 2.50%
GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2.3% FORECAST 2.7%
GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 2.2% FORECAST 2.5%
Initial Jobless Claims 207K FORECAST 224K

Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Dec) 0.2% Prev 0.4%
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.3% Forecast 3.2%
Crude Oil Inventories 3.463M Forecast 2.200M
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.326M Previous -0.148M
Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.50% Forecast 4.50%

Goods Trade Balance (Dec) -122.11B Forecast -105.60B

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 2.860M Forecast 3.750M

7-Year Note Auction 4.457% Previous 4.532%

In December 2024, the U.S. economy exhibited mixed signals, as indicated by recent economic data. Core Durable Goods Orders, which exclude transportation equipment, increased by 0.3%, slightly below the forecasted 0.4%. In contrast, overall Durable Goods Orders, including transportation, declined by 2.2%, a sharper drop than the anticipated 0.3% increase. This downturn was primarily driven by a significant decrease in transportation equipment orders, marking the fourth decline in the past five months.

Regarding the housing market, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Composite-20, which tracks home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas, showed a 4.3% year-over-year increase in November, surpassing the forecasted 4.2% and the previous month's 4.2%. On a month-over-month basis, the index decreased by 0.1%, slightly better than the anticipated 0.2% decline.

These figures suggest a resilient housing market despite challenges in the manufacturing sector. The decline in durable goods orders, particularly in transportation equipment, may reflect ongoing supply chain disruptions and reduced business investment. Conversely, the housing market's steady price growth indicates sustained demand, potentially supported by low mortgage rates and limited housing inventory.

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) 0.3% Forecast 0.4%
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) -2.2% Forecast 0.3%
S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Nov) -0.1% Previous -0.2%
S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Nov) 4.3% Forecast 4.2%

The first days of the Trump presidency: 3 things we learned | J.P. Morgan Private Bank EMEA

From executive orders to tariffs, here’s what we know about the President’s first few days.

New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec) 3.6% Previous 9.6%
New Home Sales (Dec) 698K Forecast 669K

Building Permits (Dec) 1.482M Forecast 1.483M

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 472 Previous 478
U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 576 Previous 580

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.1 Forecast 49.8
S&P Global Composite PMI 52.4 Previous 55.4
S&P Global Services PMI 52.8 Forecast 56.4
Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Dec) 2.2% Previous 4.8%
Existing Home Sales (Dec) 4.24M Forecast 4.19M
Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jan) 3.3% Forecast 3.3%
Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jan) 3.2% Forecast 3.3%
Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jan) 69.3 Forecast 70.2
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan) 71.1 Forecast 73.2

Crude Oil Inventories -1.017M Forecast -2.100M Previous -1.962M
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.148M Previous 0.765M
10-Year TIPS Auction 2.243% PRevious 2.071%

Continuing Jobless Claims 1,899K Forecast 1,860K Previous 1,853K
Initial Jobless Claims 223K Forecast 221K Previous 217K

Why have bond yields risen since the Fed started cutting rates? | J.P. Morgan Private Bank EMEA

We break down what’s causing the atypical move in 10-year yields and what to do about it.

Latest Market Updates, Economic Insights, & Policy Changes

Find breaking updates on the economy, markets, policy changes and geopolitical events along with insights from Merrill&amp;#39;s Chief Investment Office (CIO).

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Nov) 79.0B Forecast: 159.9B

CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions 306.3K Previous: 279.6K
CFTC Gold speculative net positions 279.4K Previous: 254.9K
CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions 10.5K Previous: 18.8K
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions -30.5K Previous: -62.2K

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 478 PREVIOUS: 480
U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 580 PREVIOUS: 584

In December 2024, U.S. housing starts rose significantly by 15.8% from the previous month to an annualized rate of 1.499 million units, exceeding market expectations of 1.330 million.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) : 3.0% FORECAST: 3.0%

Building Permits (Dec) 1.483M Forecast: 1.460M
Housing Starts (Dec) 1.499M Forecast: 1.330M
Housing Starts (MoM) (Dec) 15.8% Forecast: -3.7%
Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) 0.55% Previous: -0.61%
Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) 0.9% Forecast: 0.3%

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